403
FXUS65 KBOI 150810
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
210 AM MDT THU MAY 15 2025
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS A WEAK RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD TODAY,
BRINGING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST VALLEY COUNTY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE IN/NEAR THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY TODAY, WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH. THIS EVENING, A NEW SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
OREGON AND THEN QUICKLY INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO LATE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL SPREAD SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT AS PW VALUES ONLY GET INTO THE MID 60S PERCENTILE. OUR
RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONTINUES WITH A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM
MOVING IN SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS,
ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH A 60-90% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.01 INCH OF
RAINFALL. PW VALUES ARE MUCH HIGHER AND THE SYSTEM IS STRONGER,
SO RAINFALL SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE PLENTIFUL.
LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GET 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES OF
RAIN, WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS RANGING FROM 0.40 TO 0.75 INCHES.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH, RANGING FROM 5500 TO 7500 FT
MSL, SO NOTICEABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ABOVE
AROUND 7000 FT MSL, WITH ONLY A 2 TO 4 INCHES EVEN THERE (THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE STEENS MTN, WHERE UP TO 7 INCHES ARE
FORECAST). BREEZY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY, GUSTING 30-45 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST, REMAINING OVER THE IDAHO SIDE
DURING THE DAY, THEN MOVING FARTHER EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE NW SIDE OF THE DEPARTING CLOSED UPPER LOW
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING IN THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS INTO
MONDAY. ENSEMBLES FAVOR A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY MAINLY TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY, BRINGING A NEW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS NORTH OF ONTARIO. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SHOULD BE DRY UNDER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
RETURNING THURSDAY. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND ARRIVES. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL, WITH READINGS CLIMBING TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY.
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR. THERE'S A 20% CHANCE OF MVFR AT KMYL
THIS MORNING WITH LOW CEILINGS, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO SE OR THIS EVENING. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION LIKELY IN SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS: 5000-6000 FEET MSL
THIS MORNING, RISING TO 6500 TO 7500 FT MSL THIS EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 5-15 KT, WITH KTWF AND KJER EXPERIENCING
GUSTS TO 25 KTS TODAY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: NW 10-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR. WINDS W TO NW 3-8KT THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO NW
AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR TO MVFR FRIDAY WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
LIKELY DUE TO PRECIPITATION. VFR TO MVFR AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
IFR SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES. SNOW LEVELS
7000-8500 FT MSL SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY, WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS (MOSTLY VFR, BUT MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION STILL LIKELY). SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO 5000-7000 FT
MSL SUNDAY.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....SP
AVIATION.....SP
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