962
FXUS65 KBOI 160818
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
218 AM MDT FRI MAY 16 2025
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL MOSTLY
CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING HIGH CHANCES (70-99%) OF
RAIN/SNOW AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. QPF SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 0.2-0.4 AT LOWER ELEVATIONS UP TO
0.5 TO 1 INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
SYSTEM, MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SAT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE AROUND 7000 FT MSL. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, THEN GET A FEW DEGREES
COOLER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY, AND MOST SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON
THE IDAHO SIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME FAIRLY
STRONG EARLY SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS 30-45 MPH COMMON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF BOISE,
AND A WIND ADVISORY IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER IN
TIME IF GUIDANCE DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN SMALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL RACE OVER THE AREA MONDAY, AND SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK AND SLIGHTLY MOIST SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW
TUESDAY. THE RESULT IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SNOW LEVELS
IN THE NORTH WILL RANGE FROM 6500 TO 7500 FT MSL, WITH ONLY
MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST. ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE WED AND THU BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY WSW FLOW FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD WITH A WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL TUE AND WED, BEFORE
RISING TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU AND FRI.
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE (20-40%) FROM CEILINGS IN RAIN
SHOWERS SE OR THROUGH 14Z, THEN IN SW ID FROM AROUND 10Z THROUGH
18Z. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIME. SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 5-15 KT,
GUSTING UP TO 20 KT NEAR KTWF/KJER AFTER 16Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT
MSL: W-NW 10-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE (20-35% CHANCE) IN SHOWERS DURING MORNING.
CEILINGS TO RISE DURING AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 3-6 KT
OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 8-13 KT AFTERNOON.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK... VFR TO MVFR AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR SATURDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AT TIMES.
SNOW LEVELS 7000-8500 FT MSL SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY, WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS (MOSTLY VFR, BUT
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION STILL LIKELY). SURFACE WIND INCREASING TO 15-30
KT GUSTING UP TO 25-40 KT SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO 5000-7000
FT MSL SUNDAY.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....SP
AVIATION.....SP
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