055
FXUS65 KBOI 011528
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
928 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE, RADAR AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORKS
ARE SHOWING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF HARNEY
COUNTY AND WESTERN MALHUER COUNTY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO
BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE NORTHWARD, MOSTLY OVER OPEN RANGE
LAND. HOWEVER, THERE IS ABOUT A 15 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE
BURNS-HINES AREA COULD HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH THESE
STORMS THIS MORNING. THE MORNING SOUNDING AT BOISE, SHOWS SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE, SO
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN WILL REACH THE GROUND AS IT EVAPORATES
LEAVING VIRGA BENEATH THE CLOUD. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF ANY VIRGA. THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE MAGIC VALLEY OF SOUTHERN
IDAHO, WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE TREASURE VALLEY AND WEISER RIVER VALLEY WHERE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER 100 DEGREES.
AVIATION
MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING ACROSS SE OREGON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SE
OREGON AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. HIGH
DENSITY ALTITUDE DUE TO HEAT. SURFACE WINDS: NW-NE 5-15 KT, EXCEPT
SW 10-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE NV BORDER AND IN THE CENTRAL
ID MOUNTAINS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SE-SW 10-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR. HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE DUE TO HEAT. SURFACE WINDS:
VARIABLE LESS THAN 8 KT THIS MORNING, BECOMING NW 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING
OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY
FROM 11 AM MDT TO 8 PM MDT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND WAS NOT
CHANGED IN THIS FORECAST. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO TODAY'S
HIGHS HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST DAY, WITH HIGHS AT
OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES FORECAST OVER MOST AREAS OF ELEVATION BELOW
AROUND 3000 FT MSL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (15-30% CHANCE)
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON IS
ACROSS SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY AND THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY.
THIS EVENING, THE BEST CHANCE IS ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY, POSSIBLY
GETTING UP INTO BAKER COUNTY AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY, EVEN STRONGER STORMS ARE FORECAST, AND SPC HAS PUT
ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE CWA INTO THE "MARGINAL" CATEGORY.
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID-AFTERNOON WELL INTO
THE EVENING. STRONG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY AS WELL, EVEN THOUGH THAT AREA IS NOT PRESENTLY COVERED
BY THE MARGINAL RISK. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT
WEDNESDAY, WITH ONLY THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SNAKE
RIVER IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY FORECAST TO REACH 100. STORMS
ARE IN THE FORECAST AGAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT (20-60%
CHANCE), MAINLY IN THE IDAHO SIDE, WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST WITH LATEST RUNS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH A THREAT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE OVER THE IDAHO CENTRAL MTNS, INCLUDING THE BOISE
AND WEST CENTRAL MTNS AT ABOUT 50% CHANCES. IN IDAHO LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND PARTS OF SE AND E OREGON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE LOWER AT ABOUT 20%. THIS SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO BE THE EVENT
THAT THE EC AND GFS DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE MOST EXCITED ABOUT
IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS RELATIVE TO OTHER DAYS IN THE
FORECAST. LIGHTNING AND OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS OUT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FORECAST FOLLOWING FRIDAY APPEARS TO QUIET DOWN, AS A NEW CA LOW
DEVELOPS AND PUTS US UNDER DRIER SW FLOW AND WARMS TEMPS THROUGH
TUESDAY. WE WARM FROM NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY, WITH SNAKE PLAIN HIGHS APPROACHING 100
DEGREES.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ012-014-033.
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /7 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ064.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION.....ST
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....MC
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