942
FXUS65 KBOI 020257
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
857 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025
DISCUSSION
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN HARNEY AND BAKER COUNTIES. WHILE OVERALL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED EARLY THIS EVENING, HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT. INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE,
COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE, MAY BE ENOUGH TO
INITIATE ADDITIONAL STORMS OVERNIGHT. EARLIER THIS EVENING, A
FEW STORMS PRODUCED WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO AND HARNEY COUNTY, OREGON, THOUGH MOST
STORMS GENERATED GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE WITH LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL.
BOISE REACHED 102°F, MARKING THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR
AND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE RECORDED SINCE AUGUST 17, 2024.
ONTARIO HIT 104°F, AND MOUNTAIN HOME TOPPED OUT AT 105°F.
LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY, CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TRACKS INTO THE REGION. THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRONGER STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WHERE FORECAST DCAPE VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 1000–1500
J/KG AND 0–6 KM SHEAR APPROACHES 30 KNOTS. THIS SETUP SUPPORTS A
20% CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
AVIATION
MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY, AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN ID. HIGH DENSITY
ALTITUDE DUE TO HEAT. SURFACE WINDS: NW-SE 5-15 KT, EXCEPT SW 10-20
KT ALONG THE NV BORDER AND IN THE CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS...BECOMING
WNW 10-20 KT AREA-WIDE AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT
MSL: VARIABLE 5-15 KT.
KBOI...VFR. HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE DUE TO HEAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS: NW 5-10
KT, BECOMING SE OVERNIGHT, THEN TURNING TO THE WEST AND INCREASING
TO 8-12 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HARNEY
COUNTY ON THE FAR WESTERN SIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL IDAHO, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TWIN FALLS AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS WELL, BUT WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. TOMORROW WILL
BE ANOTHER HOT DAY, THOUGH NOT QUIT AS HOT AS IT IS TODAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
THERE WILL BE INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL CAUSE
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
IDAHO AND SOUTHEASTERN OREGON. HOWEVER, THE LOWER PORTION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY WHICH WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. STILL...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR RAIN
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS AND
VIRGA...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, DRY
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY AND ON SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
ON SUNDAY WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /11 AM PDT/ WEDNESDAY TO
MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT ORZ670-672>675.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....MC
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....JB
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