050
FXUS65 KBOI 021617
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1017 AM MDT WED JUL 2 2025
DISCUSSION
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY.
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS ONGOING OVER
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY, EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF SE OR, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE OUTFLOWS UP TO 50 KTS.
DCAPE VALUES STILL FORECAST TO BE NEAR 1500 J/KG WITH PWATS NEAR
0.8". CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR COVERAGE OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH MODEL VARIABILITY REMAINS FROM THE CAMS
RUN-TO-RUN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT SE OR AND
W-CENTRAL ID, BUT WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE REST OF SW ID.
AVIATION
VFR. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY IN SE OR AND NEAR
KMYL, FROM 20Z-THU/06Z. IMPACTS WITH THIS PRECIPITATION INCLUDE
GUSTS TO 50 KTS AND SMALL HAIL. HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDES WITH VERY
HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS:
VARIABLE 5-15 KT, BECOMING WNW 10-20 KT AREA- WIDE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SW 10-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR. HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE DUE TO HEAT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE (10-15% CHANCE) THIS EVENING. OUTFLOWS UP TO 40 KT AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE 5-10 KT BECOMING
NW 5-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. 25 KT FRONTAL GUSTS POSSIBLE AROUND
THU/06Z.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...TODAY IS SHAPING UP
TO BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH A VARIETY OF THREATS. A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHTNING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN OREGON. IN ADDITION,
AND NEW HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER TREASURE
VALLEY OF OREGON. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
LESS HOT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE
HIGHER, RESULTING IN SIMILAR HEAT RISK. THE LATEST MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN OREGON
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST NAMNEST HAS JOINED OTHER
MODELS IN SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MOVING
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTH OF BURNS TO BAKER COUNTY AND EAST INTO
ADAMS COUNTY, WITH WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO OR PERHAPS EVEN ABOVE
60 MPH. DCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 1300 J/KG ACROSS A LARGE
AREA, WHICH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF AVAILABLE ENERGY FOR STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS. THE SPC HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE AREA IN A "MARGINAL"
OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY. AS YOU MAY HAVE ALREADY
GUESSED, THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE SITUATION WON'T BE TOO DIFFERENT THURSDAY, WITH ONLY
SLIGHTLY LOWER DCAPE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LIKELY RESULTING IN
STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THE THREAT EXTENDS EAST INTO OUR
IDAHO ZONES THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY, WHEN A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA. OUR CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT WE MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT STORMS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT EXTENDING RIGHT ON INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS NOTABLY STRONGER THAN THE ONE WE WILL SEE
TODAY, BUT THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS WILL BE WEAKER.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A TROUGH EXITS
EASTWARD, JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR A
10% CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS. THEN, AS AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE CALIFORNIAN COAST, A RIDGE DEVELOPS DIRECTLY OVER
THE AREA, RAISING HEIGHTS AND PUTTING US UNDER WARM AND DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODELS HAVE FALLEN INTO DISAGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS
OF THE CA LOW DEVELOPMENT, BUT ALL AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
RIDGE INTO A CLOSED HIGH OVER THE DESERT SW. THUS A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS LIKELY. WE ARE SET TO WARM FROM NEAR NORMAL
ON SATURDAY TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL MEAN A RETURN TO NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS. WITH THE RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE, EXPECT MULTIPLE DAYS OF
HEAT NEXT WEEK.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT
ORZ670-672>675.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ064.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...CH
AVIATION.....CH
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....JM
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