479  
FXUS65 KBOI 041928  
AFDBOI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID  
128 PM MDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING  
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING...  
   
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT  
INSTABILITY AND  
MOISTURE AIDED BY A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO  
BRING A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING  
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE  
LARGE HAIL (UP TO 1.5 INCHES) AND DAMAGING WINDS (UP TO 60 MPH)  
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF THESE  
INTENSE STORMS IS ISOLATED (LESS THAN 15 PERCENT). THE RISK OF  
SEVERE STORMS INCLUDES THE TREASURE VALLEY THROUGH MID-  
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL  
CAUSING FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ON BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD  
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SE OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH  
THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS END BY LATE THIS  
EVENING, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT)  
THAT IT LINGERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE  
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TO OUR NORTH. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS  
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.  
   
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY  
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN  
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER OUR AREA EARLY  
THIS NEXT WEEK. THIS BUILDING RIDGE WILL BE AIDED BY A CLOSED OF  
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. WITH SOUTHERLY  
FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO RIGHT AROUND 10 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDING  
ITSELF IN TRANSIENT FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MID-WEEK. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IN HOW  
THIS BREAKDOWN UNFOLDS, SO HAVE OPTED TO FOREGO INCREASED  
PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES FOR NOW. HOWEVER, IT IS SOMETHING  
TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS IT DRAWS CLOSER.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
GENERALLY VFR. THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN OREGON  
SPREADING INTO SW IDAHO. THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
HEAVY RAIN, HAIL, 50 KT WIND GUSTS, AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.  
MTNS OBSCURED IN PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF  
OUR AREA BY SAT/00Z. SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE OF STORMS: W-NW 5-15  
KT WITH GUSTS TO 23 KT IN THE SNAKE PLAIN. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT  
MSL: S-SW 15-30 KT.  
 
KBOI...MOSTLY VFR. 30-40% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS  
AFTERNOON. MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TERMINAL  
ARE BETWEEN FRI/19Z-SAT/00Z. HAZARDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE:  
HEAVY RAIN, HAIL, WIND GUSTS OF 50 KT, AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.  
OUTFLOWS MAY TRAVEL FROM DISTANT STORMS. SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE  
OF THUNDER: NW 10-15 KT.  
 
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR. A 15-25% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING IN W-CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS,  
THEN CLEARING THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE OR NW 5-15  
KT.  
 
 
   
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ID...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ011-013.  
OR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING  
ORZ061>063.  
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING ORZ670.  
 
 
 
 
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE  
 
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE  
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE  
 
SHORT TERM...BW  
LONG TERM....NF  
AVIATION.....NF  
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