051  
FXUS65 KBOI 050256  
AFDBOI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID  
856 PM MDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
   
DISCUSSION  
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND  
WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WAS CANCELLED AROUND 530 PM MDT AS  
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. OUR OTHER FLASH FLOOD  
WATCH FOR EASTERN OREGON EXPIRES AT 8 PM PDT AS RADAR SHOWED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY DECREASING THERE. EARLIER  
THIS EVENING ONE THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY HAD  
ONE-INCH DIAMETER RADAR-ESTIMED HAIL. A GUST FRONT MOVED OUT  
AHEAD OF THE OREGON STORMS INTO THE BOISE METRO AROUND 745 PM  
MDT WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT WINDS HAVE  
SINCE DECREASED. BY MIDNIGHT MDT ALL SHOWERS, STORMS, AND  
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE DONE, EXCEPT IN VALLEY COUNTY/ID WHERE  
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE UNTIL SUNRISE.  
 
COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES,  
BUT RAPID WARMING WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH  
TEMPS TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE 100 TO 105 DEGREES IN THE LOWER  
SOUTHERN VALLEYS. ANOTHER COOL-DOWN IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY  
AND THURSDAY, BUT NOT AS COOL AS IT WAS TODAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST  
OREGON THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY  
RAIN, HAIL, 40 KT WIND GUSTS, AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MOUNTAINS  
OBSCURED IN PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING BY  
SAT/07Z. SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE OF STORMS: W-NW 5-15 KT WITH  
GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE SNAKE PLAIN. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL:  
S-SW 15-30 KT.  
 
KBOI...MOSTLY VFR. A 15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
THROUGH SAT/06Z, THEN CLEARING. OUTFLOWS FROM DISTANT STORMS  
MAY REACH KBOI THROUGH MIDNIGHT PRODUCING GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS:  
NW 10-15 KT.  
 
SUNDAY OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR. A 15-25% CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING IN W-CENTRAL IDAHO  
MOUNTAINS, THEN CLEARING THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS  
VARIABLE OR NW 5-15 KT.  
 
 
   
PREV DISCUSSION  
 
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY AND  
MOISTURE AIDED BY A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO  
BRING A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING  
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDES  
LARGE HAIL (UP TO 1.5 INCHES) AND DAMAGING WINDS (UP TO 60 MPH)  
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF THESE  
INTENSE STORMS IS ISOLATED (LESS THAN 15 PERCENT). THE RISK  
OF SEVERE STORMS INCLUDES THE TREASURE VALLEY THROUGH MID-  
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL  
CAUSING FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ON BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD  
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SE OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH  
THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY LATE  
THIS EVENING, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (LESS THAN 20  
PERCENT) THAT IT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THROUGH  
SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH TO OUR NORTH. WESTERLY  
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.  
 
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN  
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER OUR AREA EARLY  
THIS NEXT WEEK. THIS BUILDING RIDGE WILL BE AIDED BY A CLOSED  
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. WITH SOUTHERLY  
FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TO RIGHT AROUND 10 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDING  
ITSELF IN TRANSIENT FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS  
MID-WEEK. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IN HOW THIS BREAKDOWN WILL  
UNFOLD, SO HAVE OPTED TO FORGO INCREASED PRECIPITATION/THUNDER  
CHANCES FOR NOW. HOWEVER, IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS  
IT DRAWS CLOSER.  
 
 
   
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ID...NONE.  
OR...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE  
 
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE  
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE  
 
DISCUSSION...LC  
AVIATION.....JDS  
SHORT TERM...BW  
LONG TERM....NF  
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