017  
FXUS65 KBOI 080233  
AFDBOI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID  
832 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2025  
   
DISCUSSION  
NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER  
THE SWRN US WILL BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT  
BASIN TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA  
COAST. THIS SETUP WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND BRING  
HOT WEATHER TO OUR AREA TUESDAY, SUPPORTING OUR HEAT ADVISORY  
ISSUED EARLIER TODAY. ON WEDNESDAY THE OFF-CALIFORNIA LOW WILL  
COME INLAND BRINGING SLIGHT COOLING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL  
BRING FURTHER COOLING THURSDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS. THE  
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO BRING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASED  
INSTABILITY DUE TO GREATER COOLING ALOFT, LEADING TO ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND THEN IN OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES  
(EXCEPT ALONG THE NV BORDER) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A  
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR LIGHTNING WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN EASTERN OREGON.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE  
WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. GUSTS UP TO 40 KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE DUE TO HOT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. SURFACE  
WINDS: VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT, BECOMING SE-SW 5-15 KT TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: W 5-15 KT, BECOMING SE-SW  
AFTER TUE/12Z.  
 
KBOI...VFR. HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE DUE TO HOT TEMPERATURES ON  
TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS: SE 5-10 KT, BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN  
10 KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
PREV DISCUSSION  
 
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING VERY HOT  
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY. TUESDAY'S HIGHS AT  
102-103F IN THE BOISE METRO AREA WILL BE NEAR RECORD FOR THIS  
TIME OF YEAR (104F), WITH LOCATIONS NEAR EMMETT, ID REACHING  
NEARLY 106F. DESPITE RELATIVELY GOOD OVERNIGHT COOLING, HAVE  
OPTED TO ADD A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
FOR THE TREASURE VALLEY ZONES.  
 
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH STEMMING FROM A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO  
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY (400-700 J/KG OF  
MUCAPE) TO SOUTHEAST OREGON TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
THERE'S A SMALL RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS  
TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING.  
A WEAKER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY EVENING,  
SO HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS  
THE REGION, WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING A 15-25% CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH BOTH SETS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
THESE DAYS, DRY SURFACE AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION AND CREATE  
OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. SOME  
HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH WITH STRONGER  
SHOWERS. BECAUSE OF THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING IN DRIER  
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE ON  
WEDNESDAY, WE'VE ADDED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST  
OREGON ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL  
CONTINUE TO STAY ELEVATED ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH SLIGHT  
IMPROVEMENT IN HUMIDITY AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THANKS  
TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING  
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SEND A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS  
SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO ON THURSDAY. THE POST-FRONTAL WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN S-CENTRAL  
IDAHO WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE WITH THE  
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 80S, WHICH IS  
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT  
FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY  
SATURDAY AND REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH  
MONDAY.  
 
 
   
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ID...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY IDZ012-014.  
OR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MDT /11 AM PDT/ TO 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/  
TUESDAY ORZ064.  
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
EVENING ORZ670-672>674.  
 
 
 
 
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE  
 
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE  
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE  
 
DISCUSSION...LC  
AVIATION.....ST  
SHORT TERM...SA  
LONG TERM....BW  
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