945
FXUS65 KBOI 081547
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
947 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2025
DISCUSSION
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CAUSE THE HEAT TO PEAK
TODAY, WITH THE TREASURE VALLEY EXPERIENCING THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES, RANGING FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
YESTERDAY'S SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL
OREGON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST, BRINGING A 15-20% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. DUE TO MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND WEAK SHEAR, EXPECT
SMALL, SHORT-LIVED STORMS WITH LITTLE RAINFALL. LOCAL WIND GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.
GREATER THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THOUGH THERE ARE QUITE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE HIGH-RES
MODELS ON LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE
FURTHER ADDRESSED IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. NO UPDATES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION
VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE WEST-CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS. GUSTS UP TO 45 KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH DENSITY
ALTITUDE DUE TO HOT TEMPERATURES. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT, BECOMING SE-SW 5-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT
MSL: SE-SW 5-15 KT.
KBOI...VFR. HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE DUE TO HOT TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
WINDS: VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE HEAT PEAKS
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE
TREASURE VALLEY WILL SEE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES AND THE HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE TO COVER HIGHS OF 100 TO 105. AND
THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL OREGON YESTERDAY, WILL SPREAD TO THE
NORTH AND EAST TODAY BRINGING A 15-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO SE OREGON AND THE W-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS. EXPECT SMALL AND
SHORT-LIVED DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND WEAK
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH LITTLE RAINFALL EXPECTED.
A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE CA COAST WILL LIFT THROUGH SE OREGON AND
SW IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL TAKE 5-8 DEGREES OFF OF TODAY'S HIGHS. THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST STAYS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-20%), BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER COVERAGE EXISTS ACROSS SE OREGON AND AREAS
OF SW IDAHO (BOISE MTNS TO THE ID/NV BORDER) WHERE THE DYNAMICS
AND ENVIRONMENT ARE LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
OF 35 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AND COULD IMPACTS SITES WELL
AWAY FROM THE STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH EARLY IN THE NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS EASTWARD. THURSDAY IS DRY AND COOLER
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY, WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH IN THE SNAKE PLAIN EAST OF
BOISE.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, RETURNING A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND. VALLEY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY, MID 90S
SATURDAY, AND UPPER 90S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY SEE A TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DIG
INTO THE AREA, WITH CONSIDERABLE GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY OVER ITS
INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE OREGON/CALIFORNIA
COAST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WOULD BE EXPECTED TUESDAY, AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ012-014.
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ064.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING ORZ670-672>674.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....BW
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JY
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