480  
FXUS65 KBOI 082031  
AFDBOI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID  
231 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
 
UPPER-LEVEL  
RIDGING WILL LEAD TO THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE CURRENT  
HEAT EVENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH THE TREASURE VALLEY  
REACHING 100-105 DEGREES. AS A RESULT, THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS  
IN EFFECT. MID- LEVEL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY'S SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON WILL TRACK NORTHEAST, BRINGING A  
15-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE  
WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
SMALL, SHORT-LIVED, AND PRODUCE LITTLE RAINFALL DUE TO MARGINAL  
CONDITIONS AND WEAK SHEAR. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 45 MPH  
ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
A CLOSED LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OREGON  
AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS  
FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
FORECAST AREA. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES  
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE  
OUTFLOW WINDS (50-60 MPH), WHICH COULD IMPACT AREAS FAR FROM THE  
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS, BLOWING DUST  
COULD AFFECT VISIBILITY. WITH THE STRONG WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS  
AND LIGHTNING, THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF FIRES AS WELL.  
SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL REDUCE HIGH  
TEMPERATURES BY 5-8 DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW  
MOVES EASTWARD.  
 
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES  
APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE ON THE SNAKE  
PLAIN EAST OF BOISE.  
   
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
 
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES  
CONSISTENTLY DEPICT A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHING OVER  
THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY, RISING TO ABOUT 5  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY  
VARIATION THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE OREGON (INCLUDING THE VICINITY OF KBNO AND  
KBKE) AND THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH WED/05Z.  
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE DUE  
TO HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS:  
VARIABLE MAINLY SE- SE LESS THAN 10 KT, EXCEPT FOR GUSTY/ERRATIC  
OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SW  
5-15 KT.  
 
KBOI...VFR. HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE DUE TO HOT TEMPERATURES.  
SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE MAINLY NW LESS THAN 10 KT.  
 

 
   
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT IDZ400-420-423-424-426.  
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ012-014.  
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM MDT /2 PM PDT/ WEDNESDAY TO  
MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT ORZ670-672>674.  
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ064.  
 

 
 

 
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE  
 
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE  
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE  
 
SHORT TERM...JDS  
LONG TERM....BW  
AVIATION.....BW  
 
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