480
FXUS65 KBOI 082031
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
231 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL LEAD TO THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE CURRENT
HEAT EVENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH THE TREASURE VALLEY
REACHING 100-105 DEGREES. AS A RESULT, THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT. MID- LEVEL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY'S SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON WILL TRACK NORTHEAST, BRINGING A
15-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE
WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SMALL, SHORT-LIVED, AND PRODUCE LITTLE RAINFALL DUE TO MARGINAL
CONDITIONS AND WEAK SHEAR. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 45 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE.
A CLOSED LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OREGON
AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
OUTFLOW WINDS (50-60 MPH), WHICH COULD IMPACT AREAS FAR FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS, BLOWING DUST
COULD AFFECT VISIBILITY. WITH THE STRONG WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS
AND LIGHTNING, THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF FIRES AS WELL.
SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL REDUCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY 5-8 DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES EASTWARD.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE ON THE SNAKE
PLAIN EAST OF BOISE.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
CONSISTENTLY DEPICT A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHING OVER
THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY, RISING TO ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY
VARIATION THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION
VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE OREGON (INCLUDING THE VICINITY OF KBNO AND
KBKE) AND THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THROUGH WED/05Z.
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE DUE
TO HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS:
VARIABLE MAINLY SE- SE LESS THAN 10 KT, EXCEPT FOR GUSTY/ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SW
5-15 KT.
KBOI...VFR. HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE DUE TO HOT TEMPERATURES.
SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE MAINLY NW LESS THAN 10 KT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IDZ400-420-423-424-426.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ012-014.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM MDT /2 PM PDT/ WEDNESDAY TO
MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT ORZ670-672>674.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ064.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW
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