174  
FXUS65 KBOI 090259  
AFDBOI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID  
859 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
DISCUSSION
 
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST OR  
THIS EVENING AND HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF BAKER CITY AND BURNS OR. SHOWERS AND  
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTER  
SUNSET. A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST WILL  
MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OR AND SOUTHWEST ID  
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING, WITH BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITIES. TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
MAINLY VFR UNDER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS  
DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 40 KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS  
THE AREA WEDNESDAY PM. GUSTS UP TO 50 KT AND BLOWING DUST REDUCING  
VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE. SURFACE WINDS: SW-NW 5-15 KT, EXCEPT  
GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT  
MSL: SW 5-15 KT.  
 
KBOI...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE LESS  
THAN 10 KT TONIGHT, EXCEPT OCCASIONAL OUTFLOW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FROM  
THE W-NW THIS EVENING. WINDS NW 7-13 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
 
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER-LEVEL  
RIDGING WILL LEAD TO THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE CURRENT  
HEAT EVENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH THE TREASURE VALLEY  
REACHING 100-105 DEGREES. AS A RESULT, THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS  
IN EFFECT. MID- LEVEL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY'S SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL OREGON WILL TRACK NORTHEAST, BRINGING A  
15-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE  
WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
SMALL, SHORT-LIVED, AND PRODUCE LITTLE RAINFALL DUE TO MARGINAL  
CONDITIONS AND WEAK SHEAR. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 45 MPH  
ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
A CLOSED LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OREGON  
AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY, CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS  
FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
FORECAST AREA. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES  
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE  
OUTFLOW WINDS (50-60 MPH), WHICH COULD IMPACT AREAS FAR FROM THE  
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS, BLOWING DUST  
COULD AFFECT VISIBILITY. WITH THE STRONG WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS  
AND LIGHTNING, THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF FIRES AS WELL.  
SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL REDUCE HIGH  
TEMPERATURES BY 5-8 DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW  
MOVES EASTWARD.  
 
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES  
APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE ON THE SNAKE  
PLAIN EAST OF BOISE.  
 
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES  
CONSISTENTLY DEPICT A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHING OVER  
THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY, RISING TO ABOUT 5  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY  
VARIATION THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT IDZ400-420-423-424-426.  
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ012-014.  
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 3 PM MDT /2 PM PDT/ WEDNESDAY TO  
MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT ORZ670-672>674.  
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ064.  
 

 
 

 
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE  
 
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE  
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE  
 
DISCUSSION...KA  
AVIATION.....ST  
SHORT TERM...JDS  
LONG TERM....BW  
 
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