914  
FXUS65 KBOI 092022 CCA  
AFDBOI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID  
212 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
 
THE PRIMARY  
CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOW  
WINDS FROM HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO  
SHOW A 40-60% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH IN THE  
BOISE METRO AREA BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM MDT.  
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS OF 1 PM MDT SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW  
CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, STILL  
ON TRACK TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST  
IDAHO THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW,  
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES  
FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT, LIKELY INITIATING AROUND 3 PM MDT.  
 
THE MOST FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT STRETCHES  
FROM CENTRAL HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO,  
INCLUDING THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND THE IDAHO-NEVADA BORDER  
REGION. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE WIND  
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, PARTICULARLY FROM MALHEUR COUNTY EASTWARD  
ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND INTO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS. EVEN  
OUTSIDE OF STRONGER CELLS, WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH ARE  
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY-ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MALHEUR  
COUNTY, THE WEISER BASIN, THE TREASURE VALLEY, AND THE WEST  
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. BLOWING DUST WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY  
THESE WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND OPEN TERRAIN,  
REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.  
 
THIS SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY DRY, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  
IN THE 50TH TO 60TH PERCENTILE. MOST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  
LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR,  
WHICH GENERALLY WOULDN’T LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS. HOWEVER,  
GIVEN THE LOWER THRESHOLDS FOR DEBRIS FLOWS AND FLASH FLOODING  
ON BURN SCARS-ESPECIALLY THE WAPITI BURN SCAR-ANY HEAVIER CELLS  
PASSING OVER THOSE AREAS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.  
STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
AREA AND MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE  
BOISE MOUNTAINS, WHERE ACTIVITY COULD LAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  
 
THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS, WITH HIGH  
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY  
ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN, ESPECIALLY EAST OF BOISE, WITH  
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON FRIDAY WITH  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHTER WINDS, AND HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR  
NORMAL. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP KEEP SMOKE FROM  
FIRES BURNING IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
   
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
 
BROAD RIDGING  
CHARACTERISTIC OF MID-SUMMER WILL BUILD ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE  
CONUS, BRINGING A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES AND GENERAL DRYNESS TO THE REGION. VALLEY DAYTIME  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S SATURDAY AND  
SUNDAY, AND CLOSE TO 100 ON MONDAY. A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT MAY MOVE  
THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND BRING A VERY MODEST COOL-DOWN OF A FEW  
DEGREES, BUT WITH FEW NOTABLE IMPACTS OTHER THAN INCREASED  
BREEZINESS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 50  
KT AND BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE. PEAK TIME  
PERIOD FOR THIS ACTIVITY AFFECTING AREA TERMINALS IS 09/23Z THROUGH  
10/05Z. SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 5-15 KT THROUGH MORNING AND EARLY  
AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS OF 30-50 KT WITH OUTFLOWS.  
WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: S-SW 5-15 KT.  
 
KBOI... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 22Z WITH A 30%  
CHANCE OF TERMINAL BEING IMPACTED. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ARE MORE  
LIKELY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS: WINDS NW 5-15 KT  
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30-  
45 KT POSSIBLE (60% CHANCE) BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z. WNW WINDS AT 8-10  
KT OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT  
IDZ400-420-423-424-426.  
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT  
ORZ670-672>674.  
 

 
 

 
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE  
 
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE  
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE  
 
SHORT TERM...JDS  
LONG TERM....JR  
AVIATION.....JR  
 
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