575  
FXUS65 KBOI 100256  
AFDBOI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID  
856 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
DISCUSSION
 
A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS OWYHEE COUNTY THIS  
EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THIS  
FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST IDAHO LATE THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY  
TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE WITH  
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, BUT THE MAIN EVENT IS GENERALLY  
WINDING DOWN. WIND GUSTS UP TO 68 MPH WERE REPORTED NEAR THE  
STAGE STOP, SOUTHEAST OF BOISE. WIND GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH WERE  
COMMON ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY, WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 60  
MPH FROM A ITD STATION NEAR NAMPA. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ALSO  
SEEN ON RADAR, WITH ESTIMATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES IN  
SOME AREAS, WHERE A FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR  
EASTERN OR ALONG HIGHWAY 26 BETWEEN BROGAN AND IRONSIDE. A FLOOD  
ADVISORY ALSO ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE LAVA BURN  
SCAR WHERE ESTIMATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN FELL.  
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING  
WITH QUIET CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO UPDATES TO THE  
FORECAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO  
PRODUCE 50 KT GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY.  
ACTIVITY WILL BE DECREASING BETWEEN NOW AND THU/05Z. SURFACE  
WINDS: W-NW 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 KT, LOCALLY STRONG  
OUTFLOW GUSTS UP TO 50 KT, WINDS STAY W-NW 5-15 KT OVERNIGHT.  
WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: W-NW 5-15 KT.  
 
KBOI... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO  
45 KT POSSIBLE AND BLOWING DUST LOCALLY REDUCING VISIBILITY,  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DECREASING AROUND THU/03Z. SURFACE WINDS:  
WINDS NW 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT, GUSTS DECREASING  
OVERNIGHT. OUTFLOW WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 35 KT WITH VARIABLE  
DIRECTIONS.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
 
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PRIMARY  
CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OUTFLOW  
WINDS FROM HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO  
SHOW A 40-60% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH IN THE  
BOISE METRO AREA BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM MDT.  
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS OF 1 PM MDT SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW  
CENTERED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, STILL  
ON TRACK TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST  
IDAHO THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW,  
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES  
FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT, LIKELY INITIATING AROUND 3 PM MDT.  
 
THE MOST FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT STRETCHES  
FROM CENTRAL HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO,  
INCLUDING THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND THE IDAHO-NEVADA BORDER  
REGION. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE WIND  
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, PARTICULARLY FROM MALHEUR COUNTY EASTWARD  
ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND INTO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS. EVEN  
OUTSIDE OF STRONGER CELLS, WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH ARE  
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY-ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MALHEUR  
COUNTY, THE WEISER BASIN, THE TREASURE VALLEY, AND THE WEST  
CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. BLOWING DUST WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY  
THESE WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND OPEN TERRAIN,  
REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.  
 
THIS SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY DRY, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  
IN THE 50TH TO 60TH PERCENTILE. MOST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  
LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR,  
WHICH GENERALLY WOULDN’T LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS. HOWEVER,  
GIVEN THE LOWER THRESHOLDS FOR DEBRIS FLOWS AND FLASH FLOODING  
ON BURN SCARS-ESPECIALLY THE WAPITI BURN SCAR-ANY HEAVIER CELLS  
PASSING OVER THOSE AREAS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.  
STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
AREA AND MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE  
BOISE MOUNTAINS, WHERE ACTIVITY COULD LAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  
 
THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS, WITH HIGH  
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY  
ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN, ESPECIALLY EAST OF BOISE, WITH  
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON FRIDAY WITH  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHTER WINDS, AND HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR  
NORMAL. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP KEEP SMOKE FROM  
FIRES BURNING IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BROAD RIDGING  
CHARACTERISTIC OF MID-SUMMER WILL BUILD ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE  
CONUS, BRINGING A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES AND GENERAL DRYNESS TO THE REGION. VALLEY DAYTIME  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S SATURDAY AND  
SUNDAY, AND CLOSE TO 100 ON MONDAY. A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT MAY MOVE  
THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND BRING A VERY MODEST COOL-DOWN OF A FEW  
DEGREES, BUT WITH FEW NOTABLE IMPACTS OTHER THAN INCREASED  
BREEZINESS.  
 

 
   
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT  
IDZ400-420-423-424-426.  
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /11 PM PDT/ TONIGHT  
ORZ670-672>674.  
 

 
 

 
 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE  
 
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE  
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE  
 
DISCUSSION...KA  
AVIATION.....JM  
SHORT TERM...JDS  
LONG TERM....JR  
 
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