210
FXUS65 KBOI 011615
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1015 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2025
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUDS ACROSS E-CENTRAL
OREGON AND THE W-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS AS THEY AROUND THE BACKSIDE
YESTERDAY'S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALSO SEEING THICKER AREAS OF
SMOKE ACROSS E-CENTRAL OREGON AND PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN
AND CENTRAL MTNS IN IDAHO. DYNAMICS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MT
LOW WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MTNS OF E-CENTRAL OREGON AND W-CENTRAL IDAHO
THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAKER LOW TRACKING ONTO THE CA COAST WILL
SPARK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRACK INTO FAR SE
OREGON AND TO THE ID/NV BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS WILL BE WEAKER TODAY, BUT COULD BRING GUSTS TO 40 MPH
WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM STORMS IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS.
FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING SO NO UPDATES.
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR. WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY CREATE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, AND 30-40 KT OUTFLOWS. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN STORMS. MTNS OBSCURED IN PRECIP AND
SMOKE. SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOWS: SW-NW 5-15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: S-SW 10-20 KT.
KBOI...MOSTLY VFR. WILDFIRE SMOKE CAN BRIEFLY CREATE MVFR
THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE OF
OUTFLOWS: W-NW 5-10 KT.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK: ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS BAKER
COUNTY AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN SW IDAHO SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF 30-40 KT OUTFLOWS, AND HEAVY RAIN
RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SURFACE
WINDS OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOWS: NW-SW 5-15 KT EACH AFTERNOON,
VARIABLE 5-10 KT OVER NIGHTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY, THE FIRST ONE IS OVER NORTHEAST OR
THIS MORNING, WHILE THE OTHER IS OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST. A
DRY SLOT LIES IN BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED NORTH OF A LINE FROM BURNS OR TO
BOISE ID THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES
ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OR AND SOUTHWEST ID
HIGHLANDS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS, BUT
LESS INTENSE THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES NORTHEAST. A TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE COAST ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A 30-40
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN OR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO ON MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AHEAD AND ALONG THE
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE (30-40%) OF STORMS
OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO. MONDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY,
WITH HIGH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR LOWER VALLEYS,
AND 50S/60S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION, BREEZY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE UPPER FLOW WILL RETURN TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THE
EAST AND TROUGHING CONTINUES ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY, BUT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, BUT HINT AT THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JY
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....SH
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