384
FXUS65 KBOI 020256
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
856 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2025
DISCUSSION
THERE ARE A COUPLE AREAS OF ONGOING CONVECTION
(SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS) THIS EVENING, ONE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ID HIGHLANDS AND THE OTHER IS IN WESTERN HARNEY COUNTY. BOTH ARE
AIDED BY WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE TREND IS FOR A DECREASE IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (LESS THAN 20
PERCENT) OF LINGERING SHOWERS IN S-CENTRAL ID AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THERE IS A 15-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NO UPDATES.
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
MAGIC VALLEY AND KBNO THIS EVENING, WITH ABOUT A 30% CHANCE OF
STORMS CONTINUING BRIEFLY THIS MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW, MAINLY OVER SE OR
AND THE MAGIC VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN, SMALL
HAIL, 30-40 KT OUTFLOWS, AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. MTNS
OBSCURED IN PRECIP. SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOWS: VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT BECOMING W-NW 8-12 KT BY 02/16Z.
WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: S-SW 10-20 KT.
KBOI...MOSTLY VFR WITH SOME HAZE ALOFT FROM OR WILDFIRES.
SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 5-12 KT BECOMING NW 10-12 KT BY 02/16Z.
SUNDAY OUTLOOK: ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS BAKER
COUNTY, MAGIC VALLEY, AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN SW IDAHO SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF 30-40 KT OUTFLOWS, AND HEAVY RAIN
RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SURFACE
WINDS OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOWS: NW-SW 5-15 KT EACH AFTERNOON,
VARIABLE 5-10 KT OVER NIGHTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WE'LL SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. THE FOCUS OF
DEVELOP WILL BE ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
PLAIN AS A MINOR WAVE TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. A
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL
INCREASE THE OUTFLOW WIND GUST THREAT UP TO 50 MPH, COMPARED TO
TODAY'S 30-40 MPH POTENTIAL WHILE A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY SHORT-LIVED SMALLER STORMS. A DEEPER UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
PLACING SE OREGON IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A MORE ROBUST ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL SEE ITS SOMEWHAT COMMON LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WIND PUSH WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY
THE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW FROM UPSTREAM SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY
EVENING. TYPICALLY WINDY LOCATIONS, TO INCLUDE THE I-84
CORRIDOR IN BAKER COUNTY ALONG WITH NORTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR
COUNTIES WILL SEE STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY, EVEN AS THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES STARTS TO DROP AFTER TODAY. SMOKE WILL HANG
AROUND WITH VARYING COVERAGE.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH GUIDANCE CONFIDENCE
REMAINS OVER A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND UPPER GREAT BASIN THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MONDAY, MOSTLY
OVER EASTERN OR AND WEST- CENTRAL ID. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING A COOLING TREND ON MONDAY, DROPPING PEAK
VALLEY TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND MOUNTAIN
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S/70S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BUILD
INTO THE AREA, RETURNING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TUESDAY
WILL SEE VALLEY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S. GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS OVER A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST REGION
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR NOW, CONDITIONS ARE TENTATIVELY ON
THE WARMER AND DRIER SIDE TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....SA
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JY
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