565
FXUS65 KBOI 021614
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1014 AM MDT SAT AUG 2 2025
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A TIGHT UPPER LOW
TRACKING ALONG THE OR/NV BORDER THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON
HEATING/INSTABILITY AND LIFT FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL, EXPECT
20-40% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ELEVATED TERRAIN TODAY,
WITH COVERAGE SKEWING TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE ACROSS
SE OREGON AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
PLAIN. THE MAIN STORM ATTRIBUTE WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO
50 MPH. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY, SO NO
UPDATES. SUNDAY IS LOOKING LIKE AN ACTIVE DAY AS A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION. SOUTHEAST OREGON COULD SEE SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH AND LOCAL
BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING.
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, CAPABLE
OF HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, 30-40 KT OUTFLOWS, AND LOCALIZED MVFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN SE/E OREGON AND FAR SW IDAHO
HIGHLANDS. MTNS OBSCURED IN PRECIP, AND IN VICINITY OF
WILDFIRES. SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE OF OUTFLOWS: VARIABLE 5-10 KT
BECOMING NW-N 5-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL:
W TO NW 5-15 KT.
KBOI...VFR. 10-30% CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE VICINITY
BETWEEN SUN/00Z AND SUN/02Z. ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS FROM DISTANT
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS PM. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF 25-35 KT GUSTS. SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE OF STORMS:
VARIABLE 3-7 KT, THEN NW 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15-25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY OUTLOOK: SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR
EAST OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF 30-45
KT OUTFLOWS, AND HEAVY RAIN/SMALL HAIL RESULTING IN LOCALIZED
MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. MTNS OBSCURED IN PRECIP, AND IN
VICINITY OF WILDFIRES. SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE OF STORMS: NW-SW
5-15 KT. THOUGH STRONG NW FRONTAL WINDS IN THE EVENING UP TO 40
KT.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL
SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN HARNEY COUNTY WITH NOTABLE LIGHTNING AROUND
STEENS MOUNTAIN THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO EASTERN OR AND THE WEST CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO HIGHLANDS. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE SNAKE
BASIN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
SOME OF WHICH MAY REACH THE TREASURE VALLEY. A TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST ON SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
EASTERN OR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A NOTABLE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING, WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH AND BLOWING DUST ALONG THE FRONT. THE TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BEFORE
LOWERING TO AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AS A RIDGE REBUILDS
TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH RESIDES ALONG THE PACNW COAST. AS A
RESULT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR
TUE/WED, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE PACIFIC TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY, WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT
ARRIVING IN E OREGON AND SW IDAHO BY LATE WED/THU. MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THE TROUGH, BUT THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW (10-15%) ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS COOL AND
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING IDZ423.
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM MDT /1 PM PDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8
PM MDT /7 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING ORZ672>674.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JM
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....SH
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