413
FXUS65 KBOI 030303
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
903 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2025
DISCUSSION
A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON THIS EVENING, EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. THE STRONGEST STORMS EARLIER DEVELOPED ACROSS OWYHEE
AND SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTIES, PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
SMOKE MAY IMPACT SUNSET VISIBILITY IN THE TREASURE VALLEY DUE
TO THE VICTORY FIRE, A 900-ACRE FIRE IN SOUTHERN ADA COUNTY.
THE FIRE WAS REPORTED FULLY CONTAINED AS OF 8 PM MDT, BUT
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SMOKE
LINGERING OVER THE VALLEY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS
FROM MID-MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE DRIVEN BY DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE BEST OVERLAP
OF SURFACE ENERGY, LOW TO MID-LEVEL SHEAR, AND UPPER SUPPORT
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A BURNS TO CALDWELL LINE, EXTENDING
THROUGH GARDEN VALLEY AND YELLOW PINE SUPPORTING LONG-LIVED
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THIS AREA WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 65 MPH, WITH HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS EASTERN
OREGON WILL SUPPORT STRONGER STORM CORES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVIER RAINFALL AND A DEEPER COLD POOL. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH, WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH, SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
INTO THE SNAKE PLAIN AND BOISE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BLOWING DUST WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THESE WINDS AS
THEY TRACK EAST THROUGH THE SNAKE PLAIN.
THE CURRENT FORECAST CAPTURES THIS SETUP WELL, THOUGH
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.
AVIATION
VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATING
THROUGH EVENING. OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN SE OREGON. ON
SUNDAY, SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST OREGON
AND CENTRAL IDAHO. THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF 30-50 KT OUTFLOWS, AND
HEAVY RAIN/SMALL HAIL RESULTING IN LOCALIZED MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS. BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLD FRONT AND
OUTFLOWS. MTNS OBSCURED IN PRECIP, AND IN VICINITY OF WILDFIRES.
SURFACE WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT
MSL: W TO NW 5-15 KT, BECOMING S TO SW AFTER SUN/12Z.
KBOI...VFR. HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY
NEAR/AFTER 00Z, 15-20% SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG NW WINDS
WITH GUSTS THAT COULD REACH 30+ KTS. CURRENT SURFACE WINDS: LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING S TO SE SUNDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH SUNSET LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST ZONES. THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN BLUES IN OREGON
WILL CARRY A 10-15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES ONTO THE PAC NW COAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS SE OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL
IDAHO MTNS FROM MID-MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE DYNAMIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TAPS INTO
ELEVATED INSTABILTIY. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
BURNS TO CALDWELL UP TO GARDEN VALLEY AND YELLOW PINE IS WHERE
WE SEE THE BEST OVERLAP OF AVAILABLE SURFACE ENERGY, LOW-MID
LEVEL SHEAR, AND UPPER DYNAMICS. THE MAIN STORM THREAT FROM IN
THIS AREA WILL BE POTENTIALLY SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS (UP TO 65
MPH) WITH HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ALSO POISSIBLE FROM STORMS.
THE OUTFLOW POOL THAT TAKES SHAPE OVER E-CENTRAL OREGON WILL
FLUSH EASTWARD SUNDAY EVENING, BRINGING WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS
OF 30-45 MPH WITH MORE LOCALIZED 45-55 MPH GUSTS AS IT ROLLS
THROUGH SE OREGON AND THE SNAKE PLAIN IN SW IDAHO. THESE WINDS
WILL PICK UP DUST ALONG THE WAY AND HAVE KEPT BLOWING DUST
WORDING IN THE FORECAST.
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HANGS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS BAKER COUNTY AND THE W-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES INTO CENTRAL IDAHO. DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE
THE AREA OF SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL WITH A 20-40% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WRAPPING AROUND THE SNAKE PLAIN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE 8-12 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SUNDAY AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPS HOT, THOUGH ABOUT NORMAL,
AND CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOME POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION AND
FRONTAL WIND. THOUGH, IT DOES NOT APPEAR TOO SIGNIFICANT IN
RECENT MODEL RUNS AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS NORTH OF US. A
10-20% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY A BLOCKING
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC, PUTTING US UNDER COOLER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY, WE'LL BE ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....CH
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JM
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