403
FXUS65 KBOI 041543
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
943 AM MDT MON AUG 4 2025
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER OREGON WILL CONTINUE
INTO CENTRAL IDAHO TODAY, BRINGING SOME EARLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BEFORE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN MOST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MILD TODAY, WITH
TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE SHORTWAVE. SOME
ROTATION MAY ALLOW A FEW CELLS TO BECOME ORGANIZED, PUTTING DOWN
STRONGER OUTFLOWS AND LARGER HAIL EVEN THOUGH CAPE IS LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES WARM ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER 10-20%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SCATTERED BY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR E OREGON
AND CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH 05/00Z. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
OUTFLOWS UP TO 30-40 KT, BRIEF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN, AND SMALL HAIL.
MTN OBSCURATION AND MVFR-LIFR IN PRECIP CORES. SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE
OF STORMS: NW-W 5-15 KT, AFTERNOON GUSTS 15-25 KT. WINDS ALOFT AT
10KFT MSL: SW-W 5-15 KT.
KBOI...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
WEST OF THE TERMINAL. A 20% CHANCE OF A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 30KT, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE, VFR. NW SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL OR WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THERE IS PLENTY OF SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND TODAY, ALTHOUGH CAPE IS RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE. THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY WITH DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES WARM FROM AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY TO AROUND 2-4 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE
(15-30%) OF SHOWERS TO NE OREGON AND W-CENTRAL IDAHO EARLY THU
THROUGH THU NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THU AFTERNOON, THEN CONTINUED GUSTY
WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS. DRY,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTH.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....SH
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