589
FXUS65 KBOI 050910
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
310 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2025
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A TROUGH EXITS
THE AREA THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EAST
WHILE A TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACNW COAST. THIS WILL POSITION E
OREGON AND SW IDAHO IN A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, TRENDING
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ARRIVE LATE WED, WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH, NE OREGON AND
W-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL HAVE A CHANCE (15-30%) OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO EVENING AS THE MOISTURE CLIPS THE
AREA. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING FOR THIS TIME FRAME. THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE GUSTY WINDS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON, AS THE FLOW BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL
FROM THE W AND NW. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
DRY, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER
FRIDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL RETURN SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ESTABLISHES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY, BUT
CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS SHOWER CHANCES AT 5% OR LESS.
DESPITE THESE FEATURES, A FEW LONG RANGE MODELS ARE PROJECTING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH 100 DEGREES TUESDAY FOR LOW ELEVATIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.
AVIATION
VFR, EXCEPT PATCHY MTN VALLEY FOG IN W-CENTRAL
IDAHO (KMYL) THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE UP TO 10 KT,
THEN GENERALLY SW-NW 5-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT
10KFT MSL: SW-W 10-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR AND MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
THEN NW-N 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM....SH
AVIATION.....SH
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