491
FXUS65 KBOI 051553
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
953 AM MDT TUE AUG 5 2025
DISCUSSION
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TODAY AND FRIDAY. SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE JAKES FIRE IN
NORTHERN NEVADA WILL MOVE OVER THE MAGIC VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON,
BRIEFLY IMPACTING VISIBILITY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SMOKE.
BREEZY WINDS AND A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY.
NO UPDATES NECESSARY TO THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
VFR. ELEVATED SMOKE LAYERS IN FAR S-CENTRAL ID
(INCLUDING KTWF, KJER). SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE UP TO 10 KT. WINDS
ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SW-W 10-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR AND MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE, THEN
NW 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A TROUGH EXITS
THE AREA THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EAST
WHILE A TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACNW COAST. THIS WILL POSITION E
OREGON AND SW IDAHO IN A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, TRENDING
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ARRIVE LATE WED, WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH, NE OREGON AND
W-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL HAVE A CHANCE (15-30%) OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO EVENING AS THE MOISTURE CLIPS THE
AREA. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING FOR THIS TIME FRAME. THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE GUSTY WINDS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON, AS THE FLOW BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL
FROM THE W AND NW. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER
FRIDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
REMAINING AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL RETURN SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ESTABLISHES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY, BUT
CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS SHOWER CHANCES AT 5% OR LESS.
DESPITE THESE FEATURES, A FEW LONG RANGE MODELS ARE PROJECTING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH 100 DEGREES TUESDAY FOR LOW ELEVATIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...SA
AVIATION.....BW
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM....SH
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