407
FXUS65 KBOI 070248
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
848 PM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
DISCUSSION
SEEING SOME CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE W-NW THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS OPEN TERRAIN THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
PRE-SUNSET SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS
CONTINUING TO CHANNEL SMOKE FROM THE JAKES FIRE INTO THE SKIES
OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO. A MORE WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE WILL SHIFT THE SMOKE PLUME SOUTH OF THE ID/NV BORDER ON
THURSDAY. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN TONIGHT'S 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO BAKER COUNTY AND
THE W-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY WILL ALSO SEE
TEMPERATURES 4-8 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AND BREEZY WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK FOR THIS EVENING.
AVIATION
VFR. LIGHT SMOKE LAYERS. SURFACE WINDS: SW-NW 8-12
KT, WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AT KBKE AND KONO UNTIL THU/08Z. WINDS
ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: W-SW 10-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR. SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. BREEZY WINDS WILL KICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW, WITH WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH ON RIDGE TOPS, THE BAKER VALLEY, AND
IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN. A 10% CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION, BUT MOST OF THIS WILL LIKELY BE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
SOME AREAS OF VIRGA. SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO
LOFT INTO THE REGION, WITH SOME HAZE PRESENT THIS EVENING NEAR
THE NEVADA BORDER. TOMORROW, A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION IN THE MID-LATE MORNING, BRINGING ELEVATED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (15-25% CHANCE) OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND BAKER VALLEY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH WITH
SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE PRECIPITATION, WITH SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS BRINGING UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN TO THE
AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DRAMATICALLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WITH HIGHS ANTICIPATED TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
FRIDAY. BREEZY POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY, WITH
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION, SETTING OFF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
LARGE SCALE RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE PACNW COAST. TEMPERATURES
CLIMB FROM AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH VS A BUILDING RIDGE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (LESS THAN
20 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER ALONG
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....NF
SHORT TERM...SA
LONG TERM....BW
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