050
FXUS65 KBOI 250906 CCA
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
306 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2025
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE MONSOON SURGE
CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION, AS EVIDENCED BY THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR THESE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS, STARTING
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY AND EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE BEST INSTABILITY COINCIDES WITH THE PASSING OF A SLOW-MOVING
UPPER TROUGH. THE UNKNOWN IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CLEARING FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO ACT ON THE HIGH MOISTURE LADEN
ATMOSPHERE, BUT EVEN SLIGHT CLEARING COULD GIVE RISE TO
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES BEING ISSUED IN THE FUTURE. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE ON A DOWNWARD TREND, WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY STRUGGLING
TO EVEN REACH 80F IN THE VALLEYS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE MONSOON MOISTURE
LINGERS ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ON SW IDAHO WHERE THERE IS A
30-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE DRIER
AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO SE OREGON. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER RIDGE ON FRIDAY THAT
PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
AREAS OF MVFR TO LIFR VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE IN
W-CENTRAL IDAHO (NEAR KMYL), CREATING MTN OBSCURATION. VIRGA AND
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY PM. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS NEAR STORM
ACTIVITY. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE 5-15 KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT
MSL: EASTERLY 10-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR. LIGHT SMOKE LAYERS DEGRADING VISIBILITY. A 30% CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HITTING TERMINAL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS FROM DISTANT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SURFACE WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 6 KT OVERNIGHT AND MON
MORNING.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....JY
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