821
FXUS65 KBOI 281533
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
933 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2025
DISCUSSION
A RELATIVELY MUNDANE MORNING AFTER THE RECORD
PW'S, THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING HAD 0.99 INCHES OF PW WHICH IS
ONLY AT THE 95TH PERCENTILE INSTEAD OF THREATENING THE 100TH.
THAT BEING SAID, THERE'S STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME
INSTABILITY AND ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THEY WILL DEVELOP IN SE OR, THE ID/NV BORDER, AND
W-CENTRAL ID, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND RAINFALL POSSIBLE. AS
WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT, RAINFALL BECOMES LESS OF A CONCERN AND WIND
BECOMES MORE OF A CONCERN. THIS WEEKEND IS LOOKING TO BECOME
MUCH DRIER, WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING ON
SATURDAY. WE'LL ALSO BEGIN TO WARM UP BACK TO NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
PATCHY LIFR FOG AT A FEW SITES IS ACTIVELY
DISSIPATING, THOUGH HAZINESS FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE PERSISTS.
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SE
OR AND W-CENTRAL ID MTNS THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM GUSTS UP TO
35 KT ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE 5-10 KT THIS
MORNING BECOMING 5-15 KT SW-NW. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL:
W-NW 5-20 KT.
KBOI...MAINLY VFR AND HAZY DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE. SURFACE
WINDS: SE 5-8 KT BECOMING W-NW 8-12 KT OR LESS BY THU/18Z.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS E-SE 5-10 KT. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING E'RN OR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PLUME OF DEEP
MONSOON MOISTURE THAT'S BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION FOR PAST
FEW DAYS IS BEING PINCHED OFF AND LIFTED NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING BRINGS DRIER AIR TO THE REGION TODAY
AND FRIDAY WE WON'T COMPLETELY GET RID OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. AFTERNOON HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
CUMULUS BUILDUPS AND A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SE HIGHER AND HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN IN
IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA EXPANDS TO COVER THE W-CENTRAL
IDAHO MTNS ON FRIDAY. THE DRIER AIR MASS AND A WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WILL SHIFT THE MAIN STORM ATTRIBUTE TO GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS BOTH DAYS. THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY, BRINGING FURTHER DRYING AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT WHICH WILL CAP ANY THREAT FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS. A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
TRANSPORT ELEVATED SMOKE TO THE AREA FROM WILDFIRES IN W-CENTRAL
OREGON, MAKING FOR HAZY SKIES. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL BY
FRIDAY, PLACING HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OFF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO OUR AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH VALLEY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
LINGER IN THE LOWER 90S AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL SEE AN UPPER LOW STALLING AND WOBBLING OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST AND SLOWLY SHIFT BACK OUT NORTHWEST. THIS ODD
TROUGHING PATTERN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO STEER WEAK UPPER MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. FOR NOW, THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE EASTERNMOST SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION.....JM
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JY
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