829
FXUS65 KBOI 290226
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
826 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025
DISCUSSION
AT 8 PM MDT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND JUST TWO
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED IN OUR CWA. ONE THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR
SUMPTER/OR AND THE OTHER ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. BOTH STORMS
WERE WEAKENING. AROUND MID-AFTERNOON A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WITH RADAR-ESTIMATED GOLF-BALL SIZED HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN HIT
NORTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY, WITH SEVERAL OTHER STRONG THUNDER-
STORMS NEARBY IN BAKER COUNTY, BUT THOSE ALL DIED DOWN AROUND
5 PM PDT. THE BOISE SOUNDING THIS EVENING HAD 0.57 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER, EVEN LESS THAN MODELS EXPECTED, SO THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLING FOR ONLY A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
LOOKS GOOD. THE CURRENT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LABOR DAY THEN HOLD STEADY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL
REMAIN HAZY OR SMOKY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR. HAZE FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN E-CENTRAL OREGON, CENTRAL ID, AND ALONG
NV BORDER WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT, THEN RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAINFALL, SMALL HAIL,
AND GUSTS TO 30-45 KT FRIDAY. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE UP TO 10
KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: VARIABLE 5-10 KT.
KBOI...VFR. HAZE FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE. SURFACE WINDS: SE 3-7 KT,
TRANSITIONING TO NW 5-10 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR. CONTINUED HAZE FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY S-E 5-10 KT.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE IS ON
THE DECLINE, WE'RE SET TO GO FROM 95TH PERCENTILE THIS MORNING,
TO 75TH PERCENTILE THIS AFTERNOON, TO 50TH PERCENTILE BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED STORMS AND SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND
TOMORROW EVENING. TONIGHT, STORMS ALONG THE NV BORDER AND NEAR
BAKER COUNTY WILL PRODUCE LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH,
AND MODERATE RAINFALL. TOMORROW, THE DRIER SURFACE AND LOWER
MOISTURE MAKE OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH THE MAIN HAZARD. THE
MOISTURE CUT-OFF IS COMING AS A LOW STALL OFF THE PACNW COAST,
ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ALL THE WAY INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND INTO SATURDAY. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, PERSISTENT
HAZE DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE IS LIKELY. THE WESTERLY COMPONENT OF
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL DRAG SMOKE FROM OREGON, MAINLY ALOFT, BUT
SOME SETTLING OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE THE HAZE ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE
IN THE MORNINGS. TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
BUILDING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL VERY SLIGHTLY
RISE EACH DAY, THOUGH WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
OVERALL. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE MAKES IT
NORTH UNDER SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
REMAINS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE NV BORDER. EVEN WITH
THIS SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
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