626
FXUS65 KBOI 310250
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
850 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2025
DISCUSSION
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING MORE HOT
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
THE HI-RES MODELS SUPPORT CONVECTIVE CLOUDS IN PORTIONS OF SE
OREGON (MAINLY HARNEY COUNTY) IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
THE CHANCE OF RAINFALL IS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT. HAZY SKIES FROM
DISTANT WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. NO UPDATES.
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR. SMOKE LAYERS DEGRADING VISIBILITY AT
TIMES, MAINLY NEAR KBNO AND THE MAGIC VALLEY. A 10-20% CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON NEAR KBKE AND KBNO.
SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE UP TO 10 KT BECOMING E-SE 5-15 KT BY
31/16Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: S 5-15 KT.
KBOI...VFR. SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTION DUE TO SMOKE TOMORROW
MORNING. SMOKE LAYERS ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SURFACE WINDS:
E-SE 8 TO 12 KT.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN HIGHS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WILL REACH
THE MIDDLE 90S. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WALLOWA
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS NOTED OVER OTHER
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS BAKER COUNTY AND THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, CONDITIONS APPEAR
GENERALLY STABLE ENOUGH TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, A FEW HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING SLIGHTLY
MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HARNEY COUNTY
ON SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME FOR MENTION IN THE FORECAST. SMOKE FROM FIRES IN CENTRAL
OREGON, WHICH SHIFTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA EARLIER TODAY,
IS EXPECTED TO CIRCULATE BACK INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY UNDER THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INTERESTING PATTERN
WILL PRESENT ITSELF IN THE LONG-TERM. BY TUESDAY, GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THREE UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OFF OF THE WEST COAST.
UNCERTAINTY IS INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST WITH HOW THESE LOWS
WILL INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND, THEREFORE, HOW THE PATTERN
WILL EVOLVE. HOWEVER, THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE
SMALLEST OF THE THREE LOWS EMBEDDING ITSELF INTO THE MAIN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A SHORTWAVE AND MOVING NORTH ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON. GIVEN THIS, AND A PUSH OF SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE, HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN OREGON TUESDAY EVENING.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FROM WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY MORNING ARE
GENERALLY UNDER 15%. MODEL ENSEMBLES KEEP US IN
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT; BUT IF WE CAN GET SOME ADDED
DYNAMICS FROM SHORTWAVES, PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN THE DAYS TO COME. IF THIS IS THE CASE, THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS WOULD BE IN EASTERN OREGON AND ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. BY FRIDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS TROUGHING BEGINNING
TO MOVE ONSHORE, THIS IS ALLOWING FOR A 10-20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OREGON AND HIGHER
TERRAIN IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG-TERM
TAKE ON A GENERAL COOLING TREND. TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN AT
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY, BEFORE LOWERING TO
NEAR NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....SA
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....NF
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