066
FXUS65 KBOI 150903
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
303 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ITS SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (20% CHANCE) THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE COOLER, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. WE ARE ALSO EXPECTING BREEZY WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY, BRINGING
CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ON FRIDAY, THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD, ALLOWING FOR THE
RETURN OF A SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN
CHANGE IS DRIVEN BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
RISE FURTHER THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS LARGE
VARIATION IN LONG-RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR HOW THIS PATTERN
EVOLVES. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS
BEYOND THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING IN WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
MTNS OBSCURED IN PRECIP AND LOW CLOUDS. PATCHY MOUNTAIN-VALLEY
FOG AND LOW STRATUS ENDING AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, VFR.
SURFACE WINDS: GENERALLY W-N 5-15 KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: W
TO NW 10- 25 KT.
KBOI...VFR, BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS: NW
5-10 KT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....JDS
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