043
FXUS65 KBOI 240306
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
906 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR ONE MORE
DAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM,
AIDING IN MIXING AND WARMING. FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH LOW TO MID 70S IN THE SNAKE PLAIN. THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS ZONAL.
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS REALLY RAMP UP ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
25-35 MPH ACROSS THE AREA, AND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, A WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN OR AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER IN SOUTHWEST ID. AS SHOWERS
INCREASE, THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL AID IN MIXING THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FORECAST UPDATES OUT SHORTLY,
MAINLY FOR INCREASED WINDS ON SATURDAY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. INCOMING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE NW TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE UNDER 10 KT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BECOMING S-SE 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25
KT TOMORROW LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT
MSL: W-NW 5-15 KT BECOMING SW 20-35KT BY 21Z/FRI.
KBOI...VFR AND CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE 5-10 KT
THIS EVENING, BECOMING SE 4-9 KT OVERNIGHT, THEN SE 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TOMORROW AFTER 16Z/FRI.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 4000 FEET MSL NORTH TO 5000 FEET MSL
SOUTH SUNDAY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION. MOUNTAINS FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING. PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS THROUGH
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. SURFACE WINDS SW-SE 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS 20-30 KT FOR MOST AREAS. LLWS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING.
STRONGEST GUSTS UP TO 40 KT EXPECTED ALONG EASTERN OR AND
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST, STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON WHERE
GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH WILL DEVELOP. SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE SNAKE
BASIN AND MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70, OR NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AND FAR WESTERN IDAHO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO SATURDAY
MORNING BUT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE MAGIC VALLEY, WHERE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES STAY BELOW 30% THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OF 0.25-0.75" IN THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH RAIN SHADOWING KEEPING AMOUNTS LOWER AROUND
0.10" OR SO ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH THIS ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY 7000-8000 FEET. WINDS WILL BECOME
VERY STRONG SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS HARNEY AND MALHEUR
COUNTIES AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST IDAHO SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER.
PEAK GUSTS IN THESE AREAS HAVE A 50-80% CHANCE OF HITTING 50 MPH
OR HIGHER, AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND LATE SATURDAY, SENDING A
SECOND COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT, RESULTING IN A 10-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL RAPIDLY BEHIND
THE FRONT, DIPPING TO 4000-5000 FEET ACROSS THE NORTH AND
5000-6000 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTH BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION (AGAIN FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS) AND A SHIFT TO
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, REDUCING SHADOWING IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS SNOW
LEVELS FALL, MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MAY PICK UP A DUSTING OF SNOW IN
ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET MSL NEAR THE WEST-
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 5500 FEET MSL NEAR THE ID/NV OR/NV
BORDER. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ON THESE DAYS WILL BRING AROUND
ANOTHER 0.5" OF RAIN IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ANOTHER 4 TO 8 INCHES. LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD HAVE 0.15 TO 0.25 INCH PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. COOL, MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH AREAS OF MORNING FOG, THEN MILDER AND
DRIER AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BAKER CITY 31 65 37 56 / 0 0 70 100
BOISE 42 71 48 62 / 0 0 20 80
BURNS 28 70 35 56 / 0 0 70 90
CALDWELL 37 72 47 64 / 0 0 30 80
FAIRFIELD 27 62 32 51 / 0 0 10 70
IDAHO CITY 31 69 35 55 / 0 0 30 90
JEROME 36 65 44 57 / 0 0 0 30
MCCALL 31 62 34 46 / 0 0 60 100
MOUNTAIN HOME 36 70 45 63 / 0 0 10 60
ONTARIO 34 71 46 62 / 0 0 50 90
ROME 33 74 42 62 / 0 0 20 60
TWIN FALLS 36 67 44 62 / 0 0 0 30
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....JY
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....CH
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