134
FXUS65 KBOI 260918
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
318 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY EVENING'S
COLD FRONT MOVED RAPIDLY EASTWARD BUT ONLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
NV BORDER, WHERE IT HAS STALLED. MEANWHILE, VERY STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC ALONG 40N WILL REDEVELOP SHOWERS IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING
EASTWARD. MODELS ALSO MOVE A WEAK IMPULSE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HRRR MODEL SHOWS A BRIEF
SURGE OF STRONGER WEST/NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AND MORE SHOWERS
AT THAT TIME, INDICATING PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT, SO
OUR FORECAST INCLUDES THAT, TOO. LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD DRY
OUT THIS EVENING WHILE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO
BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. MCCALL SHOULD STILL GET ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT, LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. LOW TEMPS MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE COLDER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD, BUT WINDS AND
CLOUDS WILL PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING. THAT WILL COME
TUESDAY MORNING WHEN WINDS ARE CALMER AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED.
LOW TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 20S
TO 32 IN THE VALLEYS. ANY SITE THAT HAS NOT YET REACHED FREEZING
CAN EXPECT TO FREEZE TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY LOOKS SUNNY, BREEZY,
AND COOL UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BEGIN A WARMING TREND AS THE NEXT UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES FROM
THE PACIFIC.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
GENERALLY DRY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS OUR AREA SITS UNDER THE PERIPHERY
OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER, BEING ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE PLACES US UNDER THE TRACK OF POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE JET STREAM. THE FIRST OF
THESE SHORTWAVES IS LOOKING TO GRAZE OUR AREA TO THE NORTH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOSTLY CONFINED TO VALLEY COUNTY. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE
SIGNAL REMAINS OF ANOTHER STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE MAKING ITS
WAY INTO THE NORTHWEST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS ON WHERE THIS PLUME WILL SET UP. ROUGHLY 30% OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS (MOSTLY OUT OF THE GFS SUITE) FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE AND
PUT THE MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA, WHEREAS THE REMAINING
70% KEEP THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND SHUTTLE THE MOISTURE
MORE TO OUR NORTH. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, AM KEEPING
ELEVATED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE SNAKE
PLAIN. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE SEASONABLE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT WILL BEGIN LEANING ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
PRECIP EXPANDING INTO EASTERN OR AND SOUTHWEST ID
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING. MTNS
OBSCURED. SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FEET THIS MORNING.
IFR TO LIFR IN MTN SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS. MVFR TO IFR IN VALLEY
RAIN. CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS E-OREGON/SW-IDAHO
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS: SE-SW 5-15KT . WINDS ALOFT AT
10KFT MSL: SW-W 25-45KT.
KBOI...RAIN RETURNING AROUND SUN/19Z-21Z, CONTINUING THROUGH
MON/04Z-06Z. LOW VFR/MVFR IN PRECIPITATION. CEILINGS DROPPING
TO MVFR/LOW MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. FOOTHILLS OBSCURED IN
PRECIP/LOW CEILINGS. VARIABLE BECOMING SE UP TO 10 KT THIS
MORNING, THEN S-SE 10-15KT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BAKER CITY 50 27 48 23 / 50 80 0 0
BOISE 51 35 51 32 / 50 80 0 0
BURNS 46 21 48 20 / 90 50 0 0
CALDWELL 53 35 53 29 / 50 80 0 0
FAIRFIELD 42 27 42 12 / 70 90 0 0
IDAHO CITY 47 27 46 18 / 50 100 0 0
JEROME 44 32 44 27 / 80 80 0 0
MCCALL 41 25 38 14 / 30 100 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME 49 34 51 27 / 70 60 0 0
ONTARIO 54 34 55 27 / 40 70 0 0
ROME 49 27 50 22 / 90 60 0 0
TWIN FALLS 45 33 44 27 / 90 80 0 0
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....NF
AVIATION.....NF
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