669
FXUS65 KBOI 112120
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
220 PM MST TUE NOV 11 2025
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
NO MAJOR CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH MILD, DRY WEATHER CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR
WESTERN US. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK INVERSION IN THE
VALLEYS. ON THURSDAY THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN OR UNDER MOISTENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN IN HARNEY AND BAKER COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING, THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO ID LATER THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING, AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LATEST ADJUSTMENTS HAVE THURSDAY 1 TO 3 DEGREES
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY IN OREGON, BUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN WEDNESDAY IN IDAHO. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MILD
EVERYWHERE DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN. PCPN TIMING LOOKS ABOUT
THE SAME AS BEFORE, BUT AMOUNTS AND POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
SLIGHTLY. THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS STILL LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST AREAS WITH GENERALLY
.25 TO .60 INCH TOTAL PCPN THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, INCLUDING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AS THE SNOW LEVEL
DROPS BELOW 6000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. THE REST OF OUR CWA
SHOULD HAVE LESS THAN .25 INCH, MOST OF THAT IN THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH LESS THAN .10 INCH OF RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN LIGHT
WEST OR NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY ACROSS SW-IDAHO, AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 30-50% ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND 60-90% IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 5-6 KFT MSL.
IN GENERAL, LOCATIONS ABOVE 5500 FT MSL WILL SEE A 30-70% CHANCE
OF RECEIVING AT LEAST FOUR INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY/SATURDAY
(INCREASING WITH ELEVATION). THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE HAS
SNOW TOTALS OF 2-6 INCHES ACROSS HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND
RIDGELINES. THROUGH SATURDAY, THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US OUR
LATE WEEK WEATHER WILL SET UP OFF OF THE COAST OF SOCAL AS A
CUT-OFF LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW BRIEF RIDGING TO BUILD IN LATE
SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. THE LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED THOUGH. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL MAJOR ENSEMBLES
(AND THUS, THE GRAND ENSEMBLE) SHOW TROUGHING MAKING ITS WAY
IN FROM THE PACIFIC; HOWEVER, THE DEPTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE
SPECIFIC TIMING LEAVE MUCH TO BE RESOLVED. EITHER WAY, THIS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO A AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY, GRADUALLY LOWERING EACH DAY TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MONDAY.
AVIATION
VFR UNDER INCREASING MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE
WINDS: VARIABLE UP TO 10 KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: W 10-20
KT.
KBOI...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING SE UP
TO 6 KT AFTER SUNSET.
AIR STAGNATION
WEAK SURFACE-BASED INVERSION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE
KEEP MIXING HEIGHTS NEAR 2 KFT AGL IN THE VALLEYS. MIXING
WILL INCREASE AND DEEPEN LATER THURSDAY, AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
ENDING THE INVERSION AND IMPROVING CIRCULATION.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....NF
AVIATION.....NF
AIR STAGNATION...LC
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