641
FXUS65 KBOI 120355
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
855 PM MST TUE NOV 11 2025
DISCUSSION
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE
WILL BE PERIODIC BREAKS, BUT CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES WARMER OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE ENOUGH BREAKS TO VIEW THE AURORA
BOREALIS, WHICH HAS BEEN SEEN FROM SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ALREADY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 60S
IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN. THIS IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
VFR UNDER INCREASING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS:
VARIABLE UP TO 10 KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SW 10-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR. SURFACE WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
AIR STAGNATION
WEAK SURFACE-BASED INVERSION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE
KEEP MIXING HEIGHTS NEAR 2 KFT AGL IN THE VALLEYS. MIXING
WILL INCREASE AND DEEPEN LATER THURSDAY, AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
ENDING THE INVERSION AND IMPROVING CIRCULATION.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MAJOR CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH MILD, DRY WEATHER CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR
WESTERN US. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A WEAK INVERSION IN THE
VALLEYS. ON THURSDAY THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN OR UNDER MOISTENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN IN HARNEY AND BAKER COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING, THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO ID LATER THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING, AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LATEST ADJUSTMENTS HAVE THURSDAY 1 TO 3 DEGREES
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY IN OREGON, BUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN WEDNESDAY IN IDAHO. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MILD
EVERYWHERE DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN. PCPN TIMING LOOKS ABOUT
THE SAME AS BEFORE, BUT AMOUNTS AND POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
SLIGHTLY. THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS STILL LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST AREAS WITH GENERALLY
25 TO .60 INCH TOTAL PCPN THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, INCLUDING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AS THE SNOW LEVEL
DROPS BELOW 6000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. THE REST OF OUR CWA
SHOULD HAVE LESS THAN .25 INCH, MOST OF THAT IN THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH LESS THAN .10 INCH OF RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN LIGHT
WEST OR NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY ACROSS SW-IDAHO, AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 30-50% ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND 60-90% IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 5-6 KFT MSL.
IN GENERAL, LOCATIONS ABOVE 5500 FT MSL WILL SEE A 30-70% CHANCE
OF RECEIVING AT LEAST FOUR INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY/SATURDAY
(INCREASING WITH ELEVATION). THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE HAS
SNOW TOTALS OF 2-6 INCHES ACROSS HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND
RIDGELINES. THROUGH SATURDAY, THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US OUR
LATE WEEK WEATHER WILL SET UP OFF OF THE COAST OF SOCAL AS A
CUT-OFF LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW BRIEF RIDGING TO BUILD IN LATE
SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. THE LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED THOUGH. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL OF ANOTHER SYSTEM MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL MAJOR ENSEMBLES
(AND THUS, THE GRAND ENSEMBLE) SHOW TROUGHING MAKING ITS WAY
IN FROM THE PACIFIC; HOWEVER, THE DEPTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE
SPECIFIC TIMING LEAVE MUCH TO BE RESOLVED. EITHER WAY, THIS
WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO A AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY, GRADUALLY LOWERING EACH DAY TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MONDAY.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....CH
AIR STAGNATION...LC
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....NF
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