405
FXUS65 KBOI 150335
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
835 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
DISCUSSION
NO FORECAST CHANGES THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT
BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING LATEST MODELS SHOW MORE DEFINITE
PCPN-SHADOWING (I.E., LESS RAIN) IN THE SNAKE BASIN, AND A
BETTER-DEFINED MOIST LOBE AND MORE RAIN IN EASTERN OR, BOTH
FEATURES LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. POP, QPF, AND WEATHER
GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.
AVIATION
VFR. MORNING FOG WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS.
SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE UP TO 12 KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL:
SW TO W 20-35 KT, THEN S TO SW 5-15 KT AFTER 15/18Z.
KBOI...VFR. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SAT NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS:
VARIABLE OR SE UP TO 8 KT.
SUNDAY OUTLOOK...LOWERING CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY, WITH RAIN
ARRIVING FROM S TO N SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR/MVFR IN
VALLEYS, AND MVFR TO LIFR IN MOUNTAINS, IN PRECIP AND LOW
CLOUDS. MTNS BECOMING OBSCURED. SNOW LEVELS 8.5K-9.5K FEET MSL,
LOWERING TO 7.5K-8.5K FEET SUNDAY PM. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE
5-15 KT SAT NIGHT, THEN SW-SE 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KT
BEGINNING LATE SUN MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LINGERING
MOISTURE FROM LAST NIGHT'S RAIN WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT MAINLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES, MAKING FOR A PLEASANT AFTERNOON.
QUIET WEATHER WON'T LAST LONG AS A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES INLAND AND THEN NORTH THROUGH
WESTERN NEVADA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH OFF
THE COAST. THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL HAVE A DEEP MOISTURE TAP AND
WILL BOOST OUR PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND THE 95TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH A 60-90% CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD 0.10-0.50" OF RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM, WITH A 10-20% CHANCE FOR UP TO 1.00" IN SOME
LOCATIONS DUE TO SURFACE/MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER, AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHICS WILL
BOOST TOTALS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT,
LOWERING FROM 8000-9000 FEET EARLY SUNDAY TO AROUND 7000 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY, AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION/
CLOUDS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE LONG TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER THROUGH MONDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVE NE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. GUIDANCE IS
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH THAT WORKED TO STEER
THAT SHORTWAVE NE WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A LOW OFF THE SOCAL
COAST. ROUGHLY 45% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (MOSTLY OUT OF THE GFS
SUITE) SHOW THIS SOLUTION, WITH 35% OF MEMBERS (MOSTLY OUT OF
THE EURO SUITE) KEEPING THE TROUGH OPEN AND SWINGING IT ACROSS
OUR AREA. IN THE TWO SCENARIOS, THE GFS WOULD KEEP OUR AREA
WARMER AND DRIER WHEREAS THE EURO WOULD KEEP US COOLER AND
WETTER. HOWEVER, IN THE GFS SOLUTIONS, A SHORTWAVE GRAZES US TO
THE NORTH, KEEPING IN PHASE WITH THE SOCAL LOW. ALL THAT SAID,
THIS GIVES WAY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON MONDAY, WITH ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-60%) HANGING ON ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE MAJOR MODEL ENSEMBLES SHOW BRIEF
RIDGING BUILDING IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL DRY OUT OUR
AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LATE NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WHICH WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THERE IS MUCH TO BE RESOLVED
WITH REGARD TO EXACT TIMING AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.
HIGHER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ARE BEGINNING TO
REFLECT THE WARMER SCENARIOS, WITH HIGH TEMP FORECASTS TO BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....NF
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