335
FXUS65 KBOI 152143
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
243 PM MST SAT NOV 15 2025
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WITH A DEEP MOISTURE TAP CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NEVADA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THIS MOVEMENT WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO
OUR AREA. STEADIER RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON ON
SUNDAY ALONG A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL AID LIFT, WHILE
SOUTHWEST IDAHO SEES LESS RAINFALL DUE TO A DRY SLOT. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 8-10KFT ON SUNDAY, THEN LOWER TO 6500-7500
FT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE
LOW CENTER. HIGH SNOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS. RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY
OF 0.25-0.75" (LOCALLY UP TO 1") ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND THE SOUTHWEST IDAHO MOUNTAINS, AND 0.10-0.25" ACROSS
THE SNAKE BASIN, EXCEPT UP TO 0.50" POSSIBLE (10-20% CHANCE) IN
ANY STEADIER BANDS OF RAIN THAT DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST IDAHO WHERE LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED. BY MONDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA, WHICH WILL STILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS 15-30 MPH. BREEZES WILL
SUBSIDE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA AND
THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND SPLITS.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TWO CUT OFF LOWS WILL
MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY. OUR REGION LOOKS TO BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE TWO COLD AIR MASSES, WHICH WILL BRING
SHOWERS TO HIGH TERRAIN AND NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT AMONGST SOLUTIONS REMAINS HIGH IN THE
OVERALL TRACK OF THE SYSTEMS, BUT SOME VARIATION EXISTS ON THE
POSITION OF THE SOUTHERN LOW, SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 5000- 6000 FEET MSL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BRIEFLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FEET MSL ON THURSDAY
WITH LOW ELEVATION RAIN-SNOW MIX POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.
A RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK IN BRIEFLY TO OUR AREA ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM
THE BERING SEA. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH YET ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA AND
DIVING TO OUR SOUTH. MORE UNCERTAINTY FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM, WITH
SEVERAL MODELS VARYING ON POSITIONING. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
ANOTHER PUSH OF PRECIPITATION, WITH POTENTIALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BRINGING LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS BEGINNING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MVFR TO LOCALIZED
LIFR IN PRECIP, PATCHY MORNING FOG, AND LOW CLOUDS. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IN LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS 9K-10K
FT MSL, LOWERING TO 7K-8K FT MSL SUNDAY PM. SURFACE WINDS:
VARIABLE LESS THAN 8 KT TODAY, BECOMING SW-SE 10-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20-30 KT SUN AFTERNOON.
KBOI...VFR TODAY WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE IN A MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY TOMORROW IN INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE WINDS: NW 6-8 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON
SWITCHING TO ESE 6-10 KT BY 06Z/SUN.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....SA
AVIATION.....SA
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