478
FXUS65 KBOI 160329
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
829 PM MST SAT NOV 15 2025
DISCUSSION
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS
A PACIFIC UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIF THEN
ACCELERATES AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN NV SUNDAY.
SATELLITE AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY SLOT EAST OF THE
NORTHWARD-MOVING LOW ON SUNDAY, PASSING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL
IDAHO. ON THE OTHER HAND, MODELS ALSO SHOW MOISTURE CONCENTRATED
OVER EASTERN OR WHERE POPS AND QPF WILL BE HIGHEST. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A NORTHWARD-MOVING OPEN TROUGH IN WESTERN
ID SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER IT MOVES NORTH OF OUR CWA, MOISTURE
IN OREGON WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN IDAHO SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THIS AND ALIGNS WELL WITH LATEST MODELS. NO
UPDATES FOR NOW.
AVIATION
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOCALIZED MVFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS IN PRECIP, PATCHY MORNING FOG, AND LOW CLOUDS MAINLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND E'RN OR. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS 9K-10K FT MSL, LOWERING
TO 7K-8K FT MSL SUNDAY PM. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, BECOMING SW-SE 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KT SUN AFTERNOON.
KBOI...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN RAIN
SHOWERS SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS: SE UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT,
BECOMING 10-13 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WITH A DEEP MOISTURE TAP CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NEVADA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THIS MOVEMENT WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, BRINGING LIGHT RAIN
TO OUR AREA. STEADIER RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON
ON SUNDAY ALONG A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL AID LIFT,
WHILE SOUTHWEST IDAHO SEES LESS RAINFALL DUE TO A DRY SLOT. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 8-10KFT ON SUNDAY, THEN LOWER TO 6500-7500
FT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH. HIGH SNOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS. RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY OF 0.25-0.75"
(LOCALLY UP TO 1.00") ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
THE SOUTHWEST IDAHO MOUNTAINS, AND 0.10-0.25" ACROSS THE SNAKE
BASIN, EXCEPT UP TO 0.50" (10-20% CHANCE) IN ANY STEADIER BANDS
OF RAIN THAT DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST IDAHO WHERE LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED. BY MONDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA, WHICH WILL STILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS 15-30 MPH. BREEZES WILL
SUBSIDE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA AND
THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AND SPLITS.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO CUTOFF LOWS WILL
MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY. OUR REGION LOOKS TO BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE TWO COLD AIR MASSES, WHICH WILL BRING
SHOWERS TO HIGH TERRAIN AND NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT AMONGST SOLUTIONS REMAINS HIGH IN
THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE SYSTEMS, BUT SOME VARIATION EXISTS
ON THE POSITION OF THE SOUTHERN LOW, SO UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
IN PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE 5000-6000 FEET MSL THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
BRIEFLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FEET MSL ON THURSDAY WITH LOW
ELEVATION RAIN-SNOW MIX POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.
A RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK IN BRIEFLY TO OUR AREA ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FROM THE BERING SEA. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH YET ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA
AND DIVING TO OUR SOUTH. MORE UNCERTAINTY FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM,
WITH MODELS VARYING ON POSITIONING. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
ANOTHER PUSH OF PRECIPITATION, WITH POTENTIALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BRINGING LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JY
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....SA
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