511
FXUS65 KBOI 170330
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
830 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
DISCUSSION
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH WESTERN IDAHO THIS EVENING BUT THE MAIN PCPN WAS IN
EASTERN OREGON. THAT PCPN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO WESTERN
IDAHO LATER TONIGHT BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
DRIER (BUT NOT COMPLETELY DRY) AND SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WX
IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY DRY
BUT STILL MILD WEATHER THE REST OF THE COMING WEEK. NBM SEES
WEAK PCPN THURSDAY, BUT OTHER MODELS LOOK DRIER. ACTUALLY,
ALL NBM POPS LOOK A LITTLE HIGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS VS THE
CORRESPONDING QPF FORECASTS. ANY PCPN THAT DOES OCCUR AFTER
MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AT MOST. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS A LITTLE
TOO WET MONDAY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO UPDATE.
AVIATION
SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ID TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, DECREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN PRECIPITATION. MAINLY VFR ACROSS ID
THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS IN EASTERN OR, SPREADING OVER ID TONIGHT AND THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 7-8KFT
MSL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS: SW-SE 5-10 KT, WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT NEAR THE NV BORDER. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL:
SW-W 10-25 KT.
KBOI...MOSTLY VFR TONIGHT WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS. BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
LOW MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN MONDAY MORNING, IMPROVING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS: SE 5-10 KT TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES ACCOMPANYING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
NEAR BURNS, OR. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE REGION, AND WILL STEADILY DROP TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S (STILL ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE CUT-OFF LOW THAT IS PUSHING WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING,
KEEPING US IN A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE AS ANOTHER STRONGER
CUT-OFF LOW MOVES INLAND TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ELEVATED
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES KEEPING SNOW LEVELS HIGH (ABOVE 7000-
8000 FEET) THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WE CAN EXPECT ANYWHERE FROM
0.10-0.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH
HIGH TERRAIN SEEING UP TO 0.75 INCHES BY MONDAY EVENING. WE WILL
BE IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH, WHICH WILL
KEEP TUESDAY MOSTLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH TERRAIN
SHOWERS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS
LOW. A WEAK TROUGH WILL EXIT OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE
BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES STARTING THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WEST. MOST ENSEMBLES SPLIT THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
INLAND AND DEVELOP ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW THAT DIVES TO OUR SOUTH,
RESULTING IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS, BUT SOME KEEP THE
TROUGH MORE CONSOLIDATED RESULTING IN COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS. THE UNCERTAINTY RESULTS IN A 20-40% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL. SNOW LEVELS OF 5000-6500 FEET WILL LIMIT ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO HIGHER PEAKS.
UNCERTAINTY CARRIES FORWARD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE WEST BEHIND THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, MOISTURE
(POTENTIALLY AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER) LOOKS TO MOVE OVER TOP OF THE
RIDGE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
ENSEMBLES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, BUT
THE NET RESULT IS AROUND A 20-50% CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW EACH DAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH AT AROUND 4500-6500 FEET.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT AVERAGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JY
SHORT TERM...SA
LONG TERM....ST
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