103
FXUS65 KBOI 011705
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1005 AM MST MON DEC 1 2025
DISCUSSION
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE SNAKE BASIN. AS THE COOLER
AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS, NO UPDATES.
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR IN FOG/LOW STRATUS
THIS MORNING NEAR THE MAGIC VALLEY, KBKE, AND IN MTN VALLEYS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN LOW
CEILNGS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPANDING ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS: 2.5-3.5 KFT MSL. SURFACE
WINDS: VARIABLE UP TO 12KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL:
KBOI...VFR UNDER INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS. A 20% CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR, COLD WX IN
MOST OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SATELLITE SHOWED EITHER
FOG OR STRATUS ACROSS NORTHERN GOODING AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
WEBCAMS SUGGEST STRATUS. SAME IN BAKER COUNTY/OR. COLD, DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET WX TODAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
HAS AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC ALONG 130W AND A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH OF THE RIDGE AND ONTO THE BC COAST TODAY, THEN SOUTHWARD IN
BC TONIGHT AND INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY, MUCH LIKE THE WEEKEND TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO OUR CWA. THE NEW TROUGH SHOULD ALSO
BRING LIGHT SNOW. LATEST MOS PRODUCTS INDICATE AT MOST ABOUT A
HALF-INCH, BUT UP TO 3 INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE ON NORTHERN PEAKS AND
IN SE OWYHEE COUNTY ALONG THE NV BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS EVENT, SO ROADS BELOW 4500 FEET SHOULD
BECOME ONLY WET WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON TRAVEL. THE TROUGH AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOULD EXIT INTO NV WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF
THE COAST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
JET STREAM TO MOVE SOUTH, USHERING IN WETTER CONDITIONS AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STRONG WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH PACIFIC
MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RESULTING IN PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE IS GOOD ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT
ABOUT THE OVERALL PATTERN.
WITHOUT A STRONG NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW, THESE SYSTEMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE FIRST IMPULSE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY, PEAKING SATURDAY
MORNING AT AROUND 40-60% IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 60-90%
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE WITH THE WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO AROUND 5500-7000 FEET BY FRIDAY
NIGHT, THEN TREND LOWER AS COOLER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. SNOW LEVELS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE 3500-5000
FEET, WITH FLUCTUATIONS HIGHER AND LOWER AS ADDITIONAL IMPULSES
PASS THROUGH THE AREA. INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM TIMING AND STRENGTH
ARE UNCERTAIN, BUT THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE A 10-30% CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 30-60% IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ON HIGHER PEAKS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD, AND THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....NF
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....ST
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