208
FXUS65 KBOI 061034
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
334 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER
TODAY BUT STILL VERY MILD, AS A PACIFIC UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SLIGHTLY LOWERS THE AMPLITUDE OF
THE MAIN RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND, THE
RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY REAMPLIFY, AND SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AGAIN.
EVEN SUNDAY WILL STILL BE WARM IN SOUTHERN IDAHO, BUT A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT AND FOLLOWING COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL COME LATE SUNDAY
IN OREGON, AND SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN IDAHO, FINALLY
ENDING THE WARM WEATHER. THE FRONT WILL BRING .05 TO .15 INCH PCPN
TO SOUTHERN AREAS, AND .15 TO .75 INCH TO THE NORTH, BUT LOCALLY
UP TO 1.00 INCH ON WEST-FACING HIGHER SLOPES IN IDAHO. MOST OF
THIS WILL FALL AS RAIN, WITH THE COLDER AIR AND SNOW NOT ARRIVING
UNTIL MOST OF THE PCPN HAS ENDED.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE FULLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA BY LATE MONDAY. COOLER AIR OVERTAKES SE OREGON AFTER 12Z/MON
AND SW IDAHO AFTER 18Z/MON WITH THE SURGE OF THE COLD FRONT
SUBSEQUENTLY LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO
LATE MONDAY, BUT WILL CONSIDERABLY WANE BY THE TIME SNOW LEVELS FALL.
SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER 4-6 KFT 12Z/MON AND DROP TO 2.5-3.5 KFT
12Z/TUE. FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN, ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DURING
THIS PERIOD IS LOW (15-40%), WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDERSTANDABLY
SEEING HIGHER CHANCES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP OFF AFTER MONDAY AS SPLIT FLOW WILL
DIRECT STORMS TO OUR NORTH/SOUTH, SHIELDING THE AREA FROM ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF
THE STORM TRACKS, WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPING A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS (15-30%) MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR TUE-FRI. CLUSTER
ANALYSIS STILL KEEPS THE WESTERN CONUS IN TROUGHING, INDICATING THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL RUN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
VFR. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
REDEVELOPMENT OF MIST/FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER SNAKE PLAIN
(KEUL-KONO) AND IN MTN VALLEYS. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE UP TO 10 KT,
EXCEPT E-NE 10-20 KT IN THE CENTRAL SNAKE PLAIN (KJER-KGNG). WINDS
ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SOUTHERLY 5-15 KT.
KBOI...VFR, BECOMING OVERCAST WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS AFTER FRI/18Z.
LIGHT, DIURNAL SURFACE WINDS.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...LOCALIZED IFR IN MIST/FOG IN LOWER SNAKE PLAIN
AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWERING CEILINGS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW INCREASING ON
SUNDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE E-CENTRAL OR AND W-CENTRAL ID
VALLEYS FROM PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS. IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING IN THE MTNS,
WITH MTNS BECOMING OBSCURED. SNOW LEVELS 6K-7K FEET MSL SUNDAY,
LOWERING TO 4K-6K FEET SUNDAY NIGHT. SW-SE SURFACE WINDS INCREASING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND COLD FRONT.
AIR STAGNATION
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS NOW FORECAST INLAND
SOONER SO WE DECIDED TO END THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY IN MALHEUR
COUNTY AT 18Z SUNDAY, AS PRE-FRONTAL SOUTH WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE
MIXING BY THEN. IN IDAHO THE EXPIRATION WAS MOVED UP TO 06Z MONDAY,
I.E., SIX HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. THE FRONT AND THE
FOLLOWING COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL COMPLETELY SCOUR AND/OR MIX OUT
THE STAGNANT AIR MASS.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST SUNDAY
IDZ012-014-016-033.
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST /10 PM PST/ SUNDAY
ORZ064.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /10 AM PST/ SUNDAY
ORZ063.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....CH
AVIATION.....CH
AIR STAGNATION...LC
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