228
FXUS65 KBOI 061728
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1028 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ALOFT FROM A WEAK SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN NV.
THEN THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE WARMING ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE LOWEST
VALLEYS APPROACHING 60F. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON MONDAY MORNING, WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
SNOW LEVELS START OUT INITIALLY AROUND 7000-8000FEET BEFORE
FALLING TO AROUND 4000 FT BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE FOR THIS EVENT, WITH AROUND AN
INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR MCCALL WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCH IN
THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS SOUTH.
AVIATION
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN
(BETWEEN KONO TO KEUL) AND MTN VALLEYS. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BURN
OFF THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE UP
TO 10 KT, EXCEPT E 10-20 KT THIS MORNING NEAR THE WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY (KGNG-KJER). WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: SW-SE 5-15 KT.
KBOI...VFR UNDER INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS: FOLLOWING
THE DIURNAL CYCLE 2-6 KT.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...LOCALIZED IFR IN MIST/FOG IN LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWERING CEILINGS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW INCREASING ON
SUNDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE E-CENTRAL OR AND W-CENTRAL ID
VALLEYS FROM PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS. IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING IN THE MTNS,
WITH MTNS BECOMING OBSCURED SUN NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS 6K-7K FEET
MSL SUNDAY, LOWERING TO 4K-6K FEET SUNDAY NIGHT. SW-SE SURFACE
WINDS INCREASING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND COLD FRONT.
LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER
TODAY BUT STILL VERY MILD, AS A PACIFIC UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SLIGHTLY LOWERS THE AMPLITUDE OF
THE MAIN RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND, THE
RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY REAMPLIFY, AND SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AGAIN.
EVEN SUNDAY WILL STILL BE WARM IN SOUTHERN IDAHO, BUT A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT AND FOLLOWING COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL COME LATE SUNDAY
IN OREGON, AND SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN IDAHO, FINALLY
ENDING THE WARM WEATHER. THE FRONT WILL BRING .05 TO .15 INCH PCPN
TO SOUTHERN AREAS, AND .15 TO .75 INCH TO THE NORTH, BUT LOCALLY
UP TO 1.00 INCH ON WEST-FACING HIGHER SLOPES IN IDAHO. MOST OF
THIS WILL FALL AS RAIN, WITH THE COLDER AIR AND SNOW NOT ARRIVING
UNTIL MOST OF THE PCPN HAS ENDED.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE FULLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA BY LATE MONDAY. COOLER AIR OVERTAKES SE OREGON AFTER 12Z/MON
AND SW IDAHO AFTER 18Z/MON WITH THE SURGE OF THE COLD FRONT
SUBSEQUENTLY LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO
LATE MONDAY, BUT WILL CONSIDERABLY WANE BY THE TIME SNOW LEVELS FALL.
SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER 4-6 KFT 12Z/MON AND DROP TO 2.5-3.5 KFT
12Z/TUE. FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN, ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DURING
THIS PERIOD IS LOW (15-40%), WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDERSTANDABLY
SEEING HIGHER CHANCES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP OFF AFTER MONDAY AS SPLIT FLOW WILL
DIRECT STORMS TO OUR NORTH/SOUTH, SHIELDING THE AREA FROM ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF
THE STORM TRACKS, WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPING A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS (15-30%) MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR TUE-FRI. CLUSTER
ANALYSIS STILL KEEPS THE WESTERN CONUS IN TROUGHING, INDICATING THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL RUN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST SUNDAY
IDZ012-014-016-033.
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST /10 PM PST/ SUNDAY
ORZ064.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY ORZ062.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /10 AM PST/ SUNDAY
ORZ063.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....NF
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....CH
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