873
FXUS65 KBOI 070356
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
856 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
DISCUSSION
A WEAK DISTURBANCE BROUGHT OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DESPITE THIS, TEMPERATURES ROSE 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER IS
NOW DECREASING FOR THE NIGHT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT,
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG/MIST IN PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN, BAKER VALLEY, LONG VALLEY, AND OTHER
SHELTERED AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEVERAL HI-RES
MODELS DEPICT SHOWERS ENTERING NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
OREGON AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRE-
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THESE
SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE, WHICH
WILL INITIALLY LIMIT HOW MUCH PRECIP REACHES THE GROUND. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH AT THIS TIME DUE TO BEING IN THE WARM
SECTOR, AT APPROXIMATELY 6500-7000 FT MSL.
AVIATION
VFR, EXCEPT LOCALIZED MVFR-IFR FROM FOG/MIST IN MTN
VALLEYS AND LOWER BASINS EARLY SAT AM. ISOLATED SHOWERS ENTERING
BAKER COUNTY LATE SATURDAY, WITH SNOW LEVELS AT 6K-7K FEET MSL.
SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE UP TO 10 KT, EXCEPT W-SW 5-15 KT IN SE
OREGON AND NEAR ID-NV BORDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT
10KFT MSL: W-SW 5-15 KT.
KBOI...VFR WITH DECREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS VARIABLE UP TO 6 KT.
SUNDAY OUTLOOK...A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM NW TO
SE AFTER SUN/12Z. SNOW LEVELS 6K-7K FT MSL, THEN LOWERING LATE
SUN NIGHT. MVFR TO LIFR DEVELOPING IN MOUNTAINS DUE TO PRECIP
AND LOWERING CEILINGS. MTNS BECOMING OBSCURED. POCKETS OF MVFR-
IFR IN VALLEY RAIN, MAINLY NE OREGON AND W-CENTRAL IDAHO.
SURFACE WINDS: SW-SE 10-20 KT. AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20-35 KT.
AIR STAGNATION
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WITH LITTLE VERTICAL
MIXING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN
IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO/EAST-CENTRAL OREGON. RAIN SHOWERS AND WINDS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE VALLEY INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO ERODE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY FROM THE COLD
FRONT. AS A RESULT, THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN
SNAKE PLAIN IS SET TO EXPIRE SUNDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE SHORT TERM WITH WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE TEMPORARILY REBUILDS
OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WARMING
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE LOWEST VALLEYS APPROACHING 60F
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND THE
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY HAS BEEN TRIMMED TO MIDDAY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS, WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEY, AND SOUTHWEST ID HIGHLANDS AS THE SHORT-WAVE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA. SNOW LEVELS DROP
BEHIND THIS FRONT, HOWEVER THAT IS ALSO AS THE PRECIP COMES TO
AN END. SNOW LEVELS MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT AT 4-6KFT MSL,
BEFORE DROPPING TO 3.5-4.5 KFT MSL MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ENDING.
BEYOND MONDAY, THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH
DETAILS BECOME A LITTLE BIT MORE MUDDY. AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS
DOWN TOWARDS CALIFORNIA, FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO SPLIT AND
DIRECT THE STORM TRACK NORTH AND SOUTH OF US. AS THIS TROUGH
DIGS DOWN HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE RESOLVES A SHORTWAVE
GRAZING OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. AS A RESULT AM MAINTAINING A 20-30%
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONES. OTHERWISE, DIURNAL AND TERRAIN-
DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES TO END THE WORK-WEEK, AS
ANOTHER TROUGH IS SET TO DIG SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE COMPARED TO THIS
WEEK, ALTHOUGH STILL LEANING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST SUNDAY
IDZ012-014-016-033.
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST /9 AM PST/ SUNDAY
ORZ064.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION.....SH
AIR STAGNATION...SH
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....NF
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