294
FXUS65 KBOI 071128
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
428 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY TO REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN SE OREGON AND CENTRAL
IDAHO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TREASURE VALLEY RAIN SHADOWING EFFECT IS HIGH DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH 700 MB WINDS FORECAST TO BE FROM THE SW AT 30-40
KTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH AT THIS TIME DUE TO BEING IN
THE WARM SECTOR, AT APPROXIMATELY 6500-7500 FT MSL. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO RISE SUNDAY AFTERNOON (BEING SW-SE 15-20 MPH)
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY. PEAK GUSTS 25-40 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE OUT OF THE NW CLOSER TO 12Z/MON, AND
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RISE FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN. THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER PRECIPITATION WANES EARLY MONDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT TO 3.5-4.5 KFT.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH REPEATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING AND CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND GREAT
BASIN. CLUSTER ANALYSIS KEEPS THE WESTERN CONUS IN THIS PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED, WITH SOME BRIEF UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOLLOW THESE DISTURBANCES,
PRIMARILY ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND STARTING AGAIN NEAR THE
WEEK'S END. THE AXES OF MOISTURE ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE
CLUSTERS, WITH SOME ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPING IT SOUTH OF THE
AREA COMPARED TO OTHERS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON TIMING,
COVERAGE, AND AMOUNT AS OF THIS FORECAST. REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK WILL BE HOVERING NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
VFR, EXCEPT LOCALIZED MVFR-IFR FROM FOG/MIST IN MTN
VALLEYS AND LOWER BASINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING INTO SE OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SNOW LEVELS AT 6K-7K FEET MSL. SURFACE
WINDS: VARIABLE UP TO 10 KT, EXCEPT W-SW 5-15 KT IN SE OREGON
AND NEAR ID-NV BORDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT
MSL: W 10-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE UP TO 6 KT, BECOMING SE
5-9 KT SATURDAY EVENING.
SUNDAY OUTLOOK...A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM NW TO
SE AFTER SUN/12Z. SNOW LEVELS 6K-7K FT MSL, THEN LOWERING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR TO LIFR DEVELOPING IN MOUNTAINS DUE TO
PRECIP AND LOWERING CEILINGS. MTNS BECOMING OBSCURED. POCKETS OF
MVFR TO IFR IN VALLEY RAIN, MAINLY NE OREGON AND W-CENTRAL
IDAHO. SURFACE WINDS: SW-SE 10-20 KT. AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20-35
KT.
AIR STAGNATION
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND LOW MIXING HEIGHTS
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SNAKE
PLAIN IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO/EAST-CENTRAL OREGON. INCREASING WIND
GUSTS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THE VALLEY
INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO ERODE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY FROM THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT, THE AIR
STAGNATION ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN SNAKE PLAIN IS SET TO EXPIRE
SUNDAY MORNING.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST SUNDAY
IDZ012-014-016-033.
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST /9 AM PST/ SUNDAY
ORZ064.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...CH
LONG TERM....CH
AVIATION.....CH
AIR STAGNATION...CH
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