718
FXUS65 KBOI 081018
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
318 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE SHOWED A BROAD SWATH OF DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING INLAND ACROSS OREGON AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR
CWA. MODELS ARE ALSO WETTER THAN BEFORE BUT KEEP THE MOISTURE
WHERE IT IS UNTIL LATE TODAY WHEN A SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC COLD
FRONT COMES IN. BUT BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, OUR SOUTHERN AREAS,
INCLUDING THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS, WILL AGAIN BECOME
VERY MILD WITH HIGH TEMPS 55 TO 62 DEGREES. THE FRONT WILL
REACH HARNEY COUNTY AROUND SUNSET, SOUTHWEST IDAHO 7-9 PM MST,
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MOIST BAND
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS THE FRONT PASSES, RESULTING IN PCPN
FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA. EVEN SO, NORTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE MORE
THAN THE SOUTH SINCE THE MAIN MOISTURE WILL BE THERE ALL DAY.
TOTAL QPF FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON MONDAY WILL BE .50 TO
1.00 INCH IN NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, .25 TO .50 INCH IN NORTHERN
VALLEYS, AND .10 TO .25 INCH IN SOUTHERN AREAS. MOST OF THE PCPN
WILL BE RAIN, BUT 3 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. LESS THAN ONE INCH NEW SNOW IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MCCALL, ID. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH TO SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR
COUNTIES LATE TODAY/ EARLY EVENING, AND 30 TO 40 MPH TO
SOUTHERN IDAHO TONIGHT. MONDAY LOOKS DRIER, BREEZY, AND ABOUT
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY, WITH THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS CONTINUING TO HAVE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY,
A PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING CALIFORNIA WILL CIRCULATE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN CWA BORDER, LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW,
OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW, IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM, WITH MULTIPLE LOOKS AT PRECIPITATION FROM ACTIVE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING. A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS
MARCH FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY, WITH
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW SWINGING AROUND IT OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THESE INDIVIDUAL CLOSED LOWS LOOK TO COMBINE INTO BROADER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING LATE WEDNESDAY, PLACING THE WESTERN CONUS
UNDER LONGWAVE TROUGHING. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDWEEK, WITH MODELS
DISAGREEING HEAVILY ON MAGNITUDE. BY FRIDAY, BRIEF UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE QUICKLY OVER THE AREA,
BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
NEARLY ALL ASPECTS OF THESE SYSTEMS, EXCEPT THE GENERAL PATTERN
AS CLUSTERS HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING THIS SOLUTION FOR A FEW
DAYS/RUNS. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR TO SUPPORT
WINTER PRECIP, PRECIP COVERAGE, PRECIP AMOUNT, ETC. SHOULD
INCREASE IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
VFR. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP SUN MORNING
ACROSS E OR AND CENTRAL ID FROM LOWERING CEILINGS AND
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS 6-7 KFT MSL. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
INCREASES SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING FOLLOWING COLD FRONT, BRINGING
MVFR- IFR CONDITIONS TO LOWER ELEVATIONS. MTNS OBSCURED IN
PRECIPITATION/LOW CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE UNDER 10 KT,
BECOMING SW-SE 5-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT IN SE
OR. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: W-SW 25-40 KT. LLWS CONCERNS SUN
EVENING.
KBOI...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE (5-15%) OF MVFR IN RAIN/LOWERING
CEILINGS SUN EVENING. SURFACE WINDS: SE 5-10 KT SUN MORNING,
INCREASING TO SE 7-12 KT SUN AFTERNOON, BECOMING W-NW 10-15 KT
SUN EVENING. LLWS CONCERNS SUN EVENING.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WE PLAN TO END THE
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY AT 10 AM MST THIS MORNING, AS WINDS
AND MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT. STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE FRONT AND WIDESPREAD RAIN
LATE SUNDAY WILL FULLY SCOUR AND/OR CLEANSE ANY LINGERING
STAGNANT AIR LEFT IN THE VALLEYS.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS MORNING
IDZ012-014-016-033.
OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST /9 AM PST/ THIS
MORNING ORZ064.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....CH
AVIATION.....CH
AIR STAGNATION...LC
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