724
FXUS65 KBOI 081716
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1016 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
DISCUSSION
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
TODAY, BRINGING PRECIPITATION FROM BURNS TO BOISE AND AREAS
NORTH THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH ALONG THE SNAKE
PLAIN NEAR TWIN FALLS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN NEAR 5500 NEAR MCCALL AND 7000-8000
FEET ALONG THE NV BORDER. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN OR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST ID TONIGHT AS
SNOW LEVELS FALL TO 3000-4000 FEET. PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS
BEHIND THE FRONT FROM NW TO SE WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY MID
MORNING ON MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ON
THE PEAKS ABOVE 7500 FEET IN THE WEST CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS,
WITH 1 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE BOISE MOUNTAINS, DUE TO HIGHER
SNOW LEVELS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ON MONDAY WITH MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK WITH NO UPDATES.
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR WITH LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
PRECIPITATION NEAR KMYL AND KONO THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING COLD FRONT, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS 6-7 KFT MSL. AREAS
OF LLWS THIS EVENING. MTNS OBSCURED IN PRECIPITATION/LOW
CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS: SW-SE 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT IN SE
OR. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: W-SW 25-40 KT.
KBOI...MOSTLY VFR WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS AFTER SUN/18Z.
SLIGHT CHANCE (30%) OF MVFR IN LOWERING CEILINGS TODAY WITH
CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS: SE 7-12 KT,
BECOMING W-NW 10-15 KT SUN EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE SHOWED A BROAD SWATH OF DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING INLAND ACROSS OREGON AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR
CWA. MODELS ARE ALSO WETTER THAN BEFORE BUT KEEP THE MOISTURE
WHERE IT IS UNTIL LATE TODAY WHEN A SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC COLD
FRONT COMES IN. BUT BEFORE THAT HAPPENS, OUR SOUTHERN AREAS,
INCLUDING THE TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS, WILL AGAIN BECOME
VERY MILD WITH HIGH TEMPS 55 TO 62 DEGREES. THE FRONT WILL
REACH HARNEY COUNTY AROUND SUNSET, SOUTHWEST IDAHO 7-9 PM MST,
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO 9 PM TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MOIST BAND
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS THE FRONT PASSES, RESULTING IN PCPN
FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA. EVEN SO, NORTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE MORE
THAN THE SOUTH SINCE THE MAIN MOISTURE WILL BE THERE ALL DAY.
TOTAL QPF FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON MONDAY WILL BE .50 TO
1.00 INCH IN NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, .25 TO .50 INCH IN NORTHERN
VALLEYS, AND .10 TO .25 INCH IN SOUTHERN AREAS. MOST OF THE PCPN
WILL BE RAIN, BUT 3 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. LESS THAN ONE INCH NEW SNOW IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MCCALL, ID. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH TO SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR
COUNTIES LATE TODAY/ EARLY EVENING, AND 30 TO 40 MPH TO
SOUTHERN IDAHO TONIGHT. MONDAY LOOKS DRIER, BREEZY, AND ABOUT
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY, WITH THE WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS CONTINUING TO HAVE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY,
A PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING CALIFORNIA WILL CIRCULATE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN CWA BORDER, LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW,
OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW, IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM, WITH MULTIPLE LOOKS AT PRECIPITATION FROM ACTIVE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING. A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS
MARCH FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY, WITH
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW SWINGING AROUND IT OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THESE INDIVIDUAL CLOSED LOWS LOOK TO COMBINE INTO BROADER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING LATE WEDNESDAY, PLACING THE WESTERN CONUS
UNDER LONGWAVE TROUGHING. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDWEEK, WITH MODELS
DISAGREEING HEAVILY ON MAGNITUDE. BY FRIDAY, BRIEF UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE QUICKLY OVER THE AREA,
BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
NEARLY ALL ASPECTS OF THESE SYSTEMS, EXCEPT THE GENERAL PATTERN
AS CLUSTERS HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING THIS SOLUTION FOR A FEW
DAYS/RUNS. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR TO SUPPORT
WINTER PRECIP, PRECIP COVERAGE, PRECIP AMOUNT, ETC. SHOULD
INCREASE IN THE COMING DAYS.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....SA
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....CH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page