646
FXUS65 KBOI 090354
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
854 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
DISCUSSION
THE RADAR IS FILLING IN WITH SHOWERS THIS EVENING
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING FRONT PUSH INTO EASTERN
OREGON. SNOW LEVELS ARE DROPPING AND EXPECT MTN VALLEYS TO SEE
A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BY MIDNIGHT, AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SLIPS
THROUGH. WHILE SHOWERS HAVE BROUGHT A NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT IN
THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY THE FRONT WILL COME WITH A MORE
NOTABLE WINDS GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH ESPECIALLY AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH THE SNAKE PLAIN AND HIGHER OPEN TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE LATER TONIGHT (12-3AM). THE CURRENT FORECAST IS COVERING
THIS WELL SO NO UPDATE FOR THIS EVENING.
AVIATION
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EARLY
MORNING, BRINGING WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR. SNOW LEVELS 6-7 KFT MSL
LOWERING TO 3-4 KFT MSL BY MONDAY MORNING. MTNS OBSCURED IN
PRECIPITATION/LOW CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS: SW-SE 5-15 KT, THEN W-NW
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AFTER 06Z. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: W-
SW 25-40 KT.
KBOI...MOSTLY VFR. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
10Z. SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 10-15 KT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THROUGH
10Z.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO BRING PRECIPITATION FROM BURNS TO ONTARIO TO MCCALL
AND AREAS NORTH TODAY. SOUTH ALONG THE SNAKE PLAIN NEAR TWIN
FALLS, TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY REACHED THE LOW TO MID 60S. SNOW
LEVELS REMAIN NEAR 6000 NEAR MCCALL AND 7000-9000 FEET ALONG
THE NV BORDER. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN OR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST ID TONIGHT AS SNOW LEVELS
FALL TO 3000-4000 FEET. PRECIPITATION QUICKLY ENDS BEHIND THE
FRONT FROM NW TO SE WITH DRY CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ON THE PEAKS
ABOVE 7500 FEET IN THE WEST CENTRAL ID AND BAKER COUNTY OR
MOUNTAINS, WITH 1 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE BOISE MOUNTAINS, DUE TO
HIGHER SNOW LEVELS. LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. TOTAL WATER
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND 0.5 TO 1 INCH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WITH 0.05 TO 0.25 IN IN THE VALLEYS.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT, BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY WITH
MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AND TAPER OFF BY MONDAY EVENING.
TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL AND SURFACE WINDS SWITCHOVER TO THE
EAST- SOUTHEAST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER TREASURE
AND MAGIC VALLEYS. A TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY EVENING, WITH RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING
LATE.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW OFF
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PUSH INLAND, BRINGING WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 4500-5500 FEET MSL, WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1-3 INCHES ANTICIPATED IN MOUNTAIN
ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY THANKS TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
OCCURRING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, THANKS TO A
LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL EXTEND COLD
AIR DOWN FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA, HOWEVER WE WILL STAY SITUATED
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW
OFF THE OREGON COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE TREND OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SNOW LEVELS
AROUND 4000-5000 FEET MSL. SLIGHT SHIFTS IN THIS PATTERN COULD
CHANGE THE FORECAST, WITH SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS (AI GFS
PRIMARILY) FAVORING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE TROUGH. THIS
WOULD HELP SHIFT SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE EAST AND BRING COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SNOW DOWN TO
VALLEY FLOORS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS LOW, WITH THE MORE
LIKELY OUTCOME KEEPING RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATION POPULATION CENTERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....JY
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....SA
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