514
FXUS65 KBOI 092116
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
216 PM MST MON FEB 9 2026
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COOL AIR ALOFT
HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA TODAY, WITH ENOUGH DAYTIME INSTABILITY
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL ID
MOUNTAINS AND TREASURE VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET WITH CLEAR AND
COOL CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TEENS AND SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE IN THE WEST CENTRAL ID/BOISE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH 20S
AND 30S ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE DRY DURING THE DAY
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING
THE EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM OFF THE CA COAST APPROACHES. SNOW
LEVELS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AROUND 3000-4500' MSL, WITH
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS ABOVE 4500'
AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS. SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ON THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR LINGERING SHOWERS
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN TAKE OVER ON FRIDAY, BRINGING ELEVATED
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION
ORIENTED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TAP FROM
THE PACIFIC OCEAN KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGH (40-70%)
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BULK OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FAVOR THE
CONTINUED ORIENTATION OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WHICH WOULD KEEP
SNOW LEVELS ELEVATED ABOVE VALLEY FLOORS AND CONTINUE THE TREND
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FEW OUTLIER SOLUTIONS ARE
SHOWING THIS LOW MOVING ONSHORE MORE QUICKLY, WHICH WOULD BRING
COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION. THIS STORM TRACK COULD BRING SNOW
DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS POTENTIAL IS
LOW. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FAVORS THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH,
WITH A 30-40% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND 40-50%
CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WITH LOCALIZED
IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE
DAY, TAPERING OFF BY TUES/00Z. LOW CONFIDENCE (<30% CHANCE) IN
IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG IN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT,
PRIMARILY NEAR KEUL- KONO-KMYL. MTNS OBSCURED IN PRECIPITATION/LOW
CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS: W-NW 5-15 KT, MAGIC VALLEY TERMINALS
COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 30 KT THEN VARIABLE LESS THAN 10KT
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL: W-SW 25-40 KT.
KBOI...MOSTLY VFR. PATCHY FOG IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SURFACE WINDS: NW
8-12 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING E-SE 4-8 KT
OVERNIGHT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....SA
AVIATION.....SA
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