353
FXUS65 KBOI 101049
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
349 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
CLEAR AND COOL
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING, WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG/LOW
STRATUS. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT EARLY TODAY,
INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING
INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL SLING SOME MOISTURE OUR WAY, BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE OR/NV AND ID/NV BORDER AROUND 5 PM MST TUESDAY AND MOVE
NORTH IN A GENERAL WEST-TO-EAST LINE. GRADUAL WARMING WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE SOUTHWESTELY FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE, KEEPING SNOW LEVELS 3000-4500' FT MSL (HIGHEST
IN SOUTHERN PART OF CWA). SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE NIGHT. WITH PRECIPITATION
FALLING AROUND THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, FOG/LOW STRATUS CONCERNS WILL BE HEIGHTENED THURSDAY
MORNING. WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN THURSDAY,
WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT PRECIPITATION EARLIER IN
THE WEEK STALLS IN THE FLOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15-30%) ALONG OUR SOUTHERN CWA
BORDER, BUT MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIAY, BRINGING ELEVATED TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. THE RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF, AS ON SATURDAY THE NEXT
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
PACIFIC NW. CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO MAIN SCENARIOS; ONE
SCENARIO WHERE THE TROUGH CUTS OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITS OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, WHILE THE
OTHER SCENARIO KEEPS IT MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. THE FIRST
SCENARIO FAVORS THE ORIENTATION OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WOULD KEEP SNOW LEVELS ELEVATED ABOVE VALLEY FLOORS AND CONTINUE
THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE SECOND SCENARIO,
MADE UP OF A FEW OUTLIER SOLUTIONS, ARE SHOWING THIS LOW MOVING
ONSHORE MORE QUICKLY, WHICH WOULD BRING COOLER AIR INTO OUR
REGION. THIS STORM TRACK COULD BRING SNOW DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS POTENTIAL IS LOW. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH SCENARIO, OUR REGION WILL BECOME ORIENTED IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TAP FROM THE PACIFIC
OCEAN. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGH (40-70%)
THROUGH TUESDAY. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH PUSH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA,
REINFORCING THE CONFIDENCE IN A WETTER PATTERN.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FAVORS THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH,
WITH A 40-60% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND 33-50%
CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION
IFR IN LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR. SURFACE WINDS:
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT, THEN E-SE UP TO 20 KT AFTER 18Z
TUESDAY. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL: S 10-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR. SURFACE WINDS: LIGHT SE, THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING SE
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...CH
LONG TERM....CH
AVIATION.....CH
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