247
FXUS65 KBOI 101718
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1018 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
DISCUSSION
A SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE CA COAST AND WILL ROTATE
JUST OFFSHORE NEAR THE BAY AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
STREAM NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD FROM NV OVER THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND STALL OUT
OVER SE OR AND SOUTHWEST ID ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
DISSIPATING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 3500-5000 FEET WITH
THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF BY THURSDAY WITH LOW
CLOUDS LINGERING. NO UPDATES.
AVIATION
IFR-LIFR IN MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED TO
CLEAR BY NOON AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. VFR TONIGHT AS CLOUDS SLOWLY
DROP WITH A BAND OF VFR-MVFR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS: E-SE 10-15 KT. WINDS ALOFT AT
10 KFT MSL: S 10-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR TODAY. 20% CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A BAND
MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH. SURFACE WINDS: SE 10-15 KT WITH INTERMITTENT
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COOL
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING, WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG/LOW
STRATUS. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT EARLY TODAY,
INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING
INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL SLING SOME MOISTURE OUR WAY, BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE OR/NV AND ID/NV BORDER AROUND 5 PM MST TUESDAY AND MOVE
NORTH IN A GENERAL WEST-TO-EAST LINE. GRADUAL WARMING WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE, KEEPING SNOW LEVELS 3000-4500' FT MSL
(HIGHEST IN SOUTHERN PART OF CWA). SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE NIGHT. WITH
PRECIPITATION FALLING AROUND THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOG/LOW STRATUS CONCERNS WILL BE HEIGHTENED
THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN
THURSDAY, WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT PRECIPITATION
EARLIER IN THE WEEK STALLS IN THE FLOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL KEEP SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15-30%) ALONG OUR
SOUTHERN CWA BORDER, BUT MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY, BRINGING ELEVATED TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. THE RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF, AS ON SATURDAY THE NEXT
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
PACIFIC NW. CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO MAIN SCENARIOS; ONE
SCENARIO WHERE THE TROUGH CUTS OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITS OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, WHILE THE
OTHER SCENARIO KEEPS IT MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. THE FIRST SCENARIO
FAVORS THE ORIENTATION OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WOULD KEEP
SNOW LEVELS ELEVATED ABOVE VALLEY FLOORS AND CONTINUE THE TREND
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE SECOND SCENARIO, MADE UP OF A
FEW OUTLIER SOLUTIONS, ARE SHOWING THIS LOW MOVING ONSHORE MORE
QUICKLY, WHICH WOULD BRING COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION. THIS
STORM TRACK COULD BRING SNOW DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS POTENTIAL IS LOW. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
SCENARIO, OUR REGION WILL BECOME ORIENTED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TAP FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGH (40-70%) THROUGH
TUESDAY. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSH
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA, REINFORCING THE
CONFIDENCE IN A WETTER PATTERN.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FAVORS THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH,
WITH A 40-60% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND 33-50%
CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
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DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....JM
SHORT TERM...CH
LONG TERM....CH
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