424
FXUS65 KBOI 262131
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
231 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AS A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WHICH WILL
LEAD TO ONE MORE RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT BEFORE A WARMING TREND
TAKES HOLD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES,
REACHING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY, BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS OREGON AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN, BRINGING A 30 TO
50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM, RANGING FROM
5000 FEET NEAR BAKER CITY AND MCCALL TO AROUND 8000 FEET NEAR
THE NEVADA BORDER. CONSEQUENTLY, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES EAST.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY, KEEPING
THE REGION IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
30-50%. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL LATE
MONDAY. SOME LONG RANGE GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE ECMWF EFI, REFS,
LREF, AND SOUNDINGS HINT AT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA
BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES AT THIS TIME ARE QUITE LOW
(5-10%), BUT MENTIONABLE. THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF TOTALS FOR
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN TO THE NEVADA
BORDER, AS WELL AS SE OREGON. THE MAIN DISCRIMINATOR BETWEEN
MODELS IS THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH SOME INDICATING
PRECIPITATION LINGERING AROUND UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. BRIEF
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ELEVATED POPS WILL BE BACK IN THE PICTURE WITH ASSISTANCE FROM A
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION
VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS: SW-NW 5-10KT DURING
THE DAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: W-
NW 15-30KT.
KBOI...VFR. NW 5KT DURING DAY, SE 5KT AT NIGHT.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
MOUNTAINS BECOMING OBSCURED BY SATURDAY EVENING.
SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 5000 FT MSL NEAR KBKE AND KMYL, AND AROUND 8000 FT MSL
NEAR THE NV BORDER.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....CH
AVIATION.....CH
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