854
FXUS65 KBOI 270319
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
819 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
DISCUSSION
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IS BRINGING COOL CONDITIONS
AND VERY LOW DEW POINTS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING. A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT, BUT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA. SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG FORMATION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW (<30% CHANCE) DUE
TO THE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CONTINUING THE WARMING AND DRYING
TREND UNTIL COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER TAKES BACK OVER COME
LATE SATURDAY. A PUSH OF INSTABILITY NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER
COULD SUPPORT A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW (<10% CHANCE). NO
FORECAST UPDATES NEEDED.
AVIATION
VFR. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT,
THEN SW-NW 5-15 KT AFTER FRI/17Z. AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 20 KT FOR
KTWF/KJER. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: W-NW 15-30 KT.
KBOI...VFR. SE 3-8 KT OVERNIGHT, BECOMING NW AROUND FRI/17Z.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...LOWERING CLOUDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
ARRIVING IN SE OREGON/SW IDAHO FROM NEVADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
BRINGING LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SHOWERS
EXPANDING NORTHWARD SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A 10% CHANCE OF LIGHTNING
NEAR NV BORDER SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS 5-6KFT MSL NEAR KBKE-KMYL, 7-8KFT
MSL NEAR NV BORDER. SURFACE WINDS SAT/SUN: VARIABLE 5-10 KT.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AS A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WHICH WILL
LEAD TO ONE MORE RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT BEFORE A WARMING TREND
TAKES HOLD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES,
REACHING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY, BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS OREGON AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN, BRINGING A 30 TO
50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM, RANGING FROM
5000 FEET NEAR BAKER CITY AND MCCALL TO AROUND 8000 FEET NEAR
THE NEVADA BORDER. CONSEQUENTLY, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES EAST.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY, KEEPING
THE REGION IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
30-50%. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL LATE
MONDAY. SOME LONG RANGE GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE ECMWF EFI, REFS,
LREF, AND SOUNDINGS HINT AT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEVADA
BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES AT THIS TIME ARE QUITE LOW
(5-10%), BUT MENTIONABLE. THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF TOTALS FOR
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN TO THE NEVADA
BORDER, AS WELL AS SE OREGON. THE MAIN DISCRIMINATOR BETWEEN
MODELS IS THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH SOME INDICATING
PRECIPITATION LINGERING AROUND UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. BRIEF
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ELEVATED POPS WILL BE BACK IN THE PICTURE WITH ASSISTANCE FROM A
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...SA
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....CH
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