440
FXUS65 KBOI 281622
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
922 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
DISCUSSION
THE WEAK SYSTEM OFF CALIF NEAR 40/130 WILL MOVE
ENE-WARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, AWAY
FROM THE PARENT UPPER LOW NEAR 40/130. IT WILL STILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS
IN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN FURTHER
SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO, BUT STILL
MOIST ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PM THUNDERSTORMS.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LATE FEBRUARY, LOWERING ABOUT 5 DEGREES UNDER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
LIGHT WINDS, EXCEPT OUTFLOW GUSTS 30-40 MPH AHEAD OF STRONGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATES.
AVIATION
VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS
SE OR AND SW ID THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS RISE TO 7-8 KFT MSL,
WITH VFR-MVFR CEILINGS, MTNS OBSCURED, AND A 10% CHANCE OF
LIGHTNING NEAR THE NV BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS:
VARIABLE 5-15 KT. WINDS ALOFT AT 10KFT MSL: W 10-25 KT.
KBOI...VFR AND A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND STAYS LIGHT AND VARIABLE, FAVORING NW THIS
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY OUTLOOK...SHOWERS EXPANDING NORTHWARD SUNDAY. MVFR-IFR
DEVELOPING IN MTN SNOW AND HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS
6-8 KFT MSL. ANOTHER 10% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON LIGHTNING IN SE OR
AND ALONG THE NV-ID BORDER. SURFACE WINDS: SW-SE 5-15 KT, GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT WITH STORMS.
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SYSTEM OFF THE
CA COAST WILL SLOWLY TRACK INLAND WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS (30-50% CHANCE) DEVELOP IN SE
OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE (10% CHANCE) OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NV BORDER. SHOWERS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, BUT REFORM AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS (10-20% CHANCE) MAINLY OVER
EASTERN OR AND SOUTH OF THE SNAKE BASIN IN ID. SNOW LEVELS RANGE
FROM 7000-8000FT WITH THIS SYSTEM. MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOON HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS UP TO 30-40 MPH.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
RETURNS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE PERIOD, WITH MID 60S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SNAKE BASIN, OR AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. ENSEMBLES BRING A POTENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO 3500-4500 FEET
BY THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THURSDAY WITH THE COLD UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT. CONDITIONS DRY OUT
ON FRIDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A RETURN TO COOL AND UNSETTLED BY
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JM
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....KA
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