354
FXUS65 KBOI 011131
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
431 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
A WEAK SYSTEM OFF THE
CA COAST WILL SLOWLY TRACK INLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
(30-50% CHANCE) THIS AFTERNOON AND A 10-15% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OR. SNOW LEVELS RANGE FROM
7000-8500FT WITH THIS SYSTEM. MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOON HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS UP TO 30-40 MPH. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS NV/UT AND INTO WY.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST OF THE PERIOD, WITH LOW TO MID 60S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SNAKE BASIN, OR AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING TROUGH.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED COME WEDNESDAY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SNOW
LEVELS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL START OUT AT 5.5-6.5 KFT MSL,
BEFORE LOWERING TO 3.5-4.5 KFT FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
THURSDAY AND BEYOND, WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT BEING THE MAIN DRIVER
IN THE MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND INTO OUR AREA WILL SUPPORT A WARMING
TREND BEYOND THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN REGARD TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN THE PACIFIC, AND A LOW CLOSES OFF NEAR THE BAJA
PENINSULA, THE QUESTION BECOMES WHERE OUR AREA WILL BE SITUATED
IN RELATION TO THE LOW AND THE JET STREAM ALOFT. LATEST
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS FAVORING THE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST OVER
OUR AREA, KEEPING THE MAIN STORM TRACK NORTH. PRECIPITATION
TRENDS IN ENSEMBLES ARE BEGINNING TO REFLECT THIS, WITH THE GFS
ENSEMBLE BACKING OFF ON PRECIP (OUTSIDE OF THE WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS) OVER THE LAST TWO RUNS. THE EURO ENSEMBLE IS
STILL HOLDING ON, BUT IN THE LATEST RUN IS TRENDING DOWNWARD IN
REGARD TO QPF. FOR NOW, AM MAINTAINING ELEVATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AREA-WIDE COME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR. LIGHT PRECIPITATION/VIRGA INCREASING
FROM S TO N OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOCALIZED MFVR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN MTN SNOW AND HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. A 10% CHANCE OF
LIGHTNING IN SE OREGON AND NEAR THE ID/NV BORDER SUN/PM. SNOW
LEVELS: 7-8.5 KFT MSL. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE UP TO 12 KT,
LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 30 KT NEAR CONVECTION. WINDS ALOFT AT 10
KFT MSL: W-SW 5-20 KT.
KBOI...VFR WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/VIRGA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THEN, RAIN LIKELY (>60% CHANCE) LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR BY MONDAY/AM. SURFACE WINDS: LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....NF
AVIATION.....NF
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