515
FXUS65 KBOI 021206
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
506 AM MST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO AREA TODAY, BUT EXIT REGION
ON TUESDAY WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF NEXT COLD
FRONT.
- STRONG COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS FALL TO
3500-4500FT WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 6000FT. WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A 80% CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH FROM MOUNTAIN HOME TO TWIN FALLS.
- PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER AND UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS
ACROSS NV/UT AND INTO WY. CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE PERIOD, WITH
LOW 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SNAKE BASIN, OR AROUND 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME
BREEZY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SNOW LEVELS
FALLING TO 3500-4500 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST
COME THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE CHANCE OF 30+ MPH GUSTS ARE 80% OR
GREATER FROM MOUNTAIN HOME EAST TOWARDS TWIN FALLS. HAVE UPPED
THE FORECAST WINDS TO INCLUDE GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH IN THE SAME
AREA DESCRIBED ABOVE. WHILE THIS IS WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE SEEN, IT WILL BE BREEZY AREA-WIDE THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL COOL TO BE
AT OR BELOW NORMAL, BEFORE A WARMING TREND ESTABLISHES ITSELF
FRIDAY AND BEYOND.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND A LOW CLOSES OFF NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA.
WHILE BY SATURDAY THE RIDGING IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL EXTEND
EAST OVER OUR AREA, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD; WHERE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF ANY PRECIPITATION.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGING, WITH
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY, THE RIDGING
OVER OUR AREA WILL FLATTEN OUT AS THE POLAR JET STREAM DIPS DOWN
WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE. WHILE DETAILS ARE STILL FUZZY AT 7
DAYS OUT, THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A 30-50% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA AND AREAS OF FOG WILL RESULT IN MVFR-LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING. MTNS OBSCURED.
PRECIPITATION WILL END AFTER TUE/00Z WITH CONDITION'S GENERALLY
VFR TUE/PM. AREAS OF FOG WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT TUE. SNOW
LEVELS: 6-7.5 KFT MSL. SURFACE WINDS: VARIABLE UP TO 8KT, THEN
W-NW 5- 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT MON AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT AT
10KFT MSL: W-SW 10-20 KT, VEERING TO N MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KBOI...PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (20% CHANCE) MONDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
BECOMING NW 5-15 MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.X.COM/NWSBOISE
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....NF
AVIATION.....NF
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